Bo Nix is averaging 4.9 air yards per attempt this season. That ranks dead last among 701 qualifying QB seasons over the last 20 years, per CBS Sports’ Doug Clawson.
You’re not supposed to be able to win playing the quarterback position that way. And yet, the Broncos are somehow 4-2 with wins over teams like the Jaguars, Rams, and Seahawks.
It’s nice to have such a huge problem at the most important position and still be 4-2, but the luck will eventually run out for Denver if Nix doesn’t start to play the way he did at the end of last season.
So what’s wrong with Nix?
The general answer is he doesn’t look comfortable. He looks uncertain. He’s indecisive as a result, and that’s kept him from cutting it loose on throws that are open at the intermediate level.
Instead of taking those throws that are available and might lead to first downs (or even big-chunk plays), he’s been too quick to check it down, picking up only a handful of yards at a time.
So instead of getting a new set of downs and allowing his play-caller (whether it’s Davis Webb or Sean Payton) to get into the game, call more plays, and take more shots, he’s kept the offense behind the chains, leading to punts and fewer opportunities.
I can’t tell you why it’s happening. Maybe he’s still getting back into things mentally after suffering a serious injury at the end of last season? Maybe the shifts in who’s calling the plays have set him back?
There was a report on Sunday that the Broncos changed their offensive terminology when Webb became the play-caller and then changed it back when Payton took over, which is all hard to believe.
Either way, there have been completions on the field that Nix has failed to take.
This play from Thursday night’s game vs. Seattle is a great example. This was a 2nd-and-10 with 2 minutes left in the second quarter. The Broncos were in an empty formation. Seattle responded with a split-safety look:
To the left, where Nix looked first, the Broncos had a post and a wrap-in called:
The front side of the route concept was designed to hold the deep safety and the middle linebacker:
Nix would read the deep safety to the 2-receiver side to determine which route to target. At the snap, that safety got depth initially, taking away the post:
Nix should have been able to quickly move down to the in-breaker, hit his back foot, and get the ball out right about here:
That was wide open for at least a chains-moving completion. But Nix didn’t pull the trigger. From the screenshot above, you can see that he had already moved on to the other side of the field and targeted his underneath route almost immediately:
