What Does Aaron Rodgers Have Left?
Aaron Rodgers is going to the Steelers, which officially makes the AFC North the most interesting division in football.
I tend to believe Rodgers has a little more left in the tank than the average person seems to. Let’s see if being in a stable organization with a head coach who knows what it takes to have success produces better results than what we saw with the Jets.
Quite frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised by any outcome this season, which is part of what makes this such a compelling move. So quit complaining that you “have to watch” one of the best to ever do it get one more shot. It’s going to be an interesting experiment either way.
I wrote about what I think Aaron Rodgers has left back in February and am re-posting it below. The section about which team Rodgers will go to is obviously no longer relevant, although you might find it interesting to read in retrospect.
Enjoy.
What Does Aaron Rodgers Have Left?
“I think you have to put his season in the context of the fact that he’s a 40-year-old player who’s coming back from a really significant injury. I think people forget that when they look at his season.”
That’s what Greg Cosell, the Executive Producer of the NFL Matchup Show and watcher of more all-22 coaches film than anyone in the industry, had to say about Aaron Rodgers when I interviewed him in January.
He continued:
“When I watched him play this year, I still saw a quarterback that could throw it as well as anybody. He’s obviously as smart as any quarterback’s ever been.
I thought that his ball placement wasn’t as precise as we’ve seen in the past. I don’t know if that’s a function of his lower body or not because, as I said, coming back from an Achilles at his age is a big deal […].
But it was a very up and down season in terms of his overall quality and consistency of play. There were times he looked very good. And other times, he just seemed to miss some throws that we just were so used to him making in the past.
But I just really think that injury is being overlooked by a lot of people. That’s a really significant injury. And when he came back, sure he wasn’t limping around, but I have to believe that the injury really impacted his ability to play the way that we know he’s capable of.”
As Greg’s comments highlight, you have to factor in that Rodgers was just a year removed from tearing his Achilles when evaluating his play and projecting what he could be in 2025.
There’s no question that his performance this year was a disappointment, and the Jets’ 2024 season as a whole didn’t come anywhere close to meeting even modest expectations. They won fewer games with Rodgers than they did with Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, and Trevor Siemian at quarterback the year before.
However, as I wrote last month, Rodgers was not the main reason why. The Jets got worse in just about every major area of their team this season. The one place where they didn’t was in the passing game:
A Mixed Bag
Still, that doesn’t mean Rodgers played especially well. In fact, my thoughts on his performance echo what Greg said above. He was inconsistent.
There were times throughout the season when he looked like the Rodgers of old, hitting 1-on-1’s outside the numbers no matter how tight the coverage:
And moving defenders to create openings inside:
And fitting perfectly-placed passes into small windows:
The ability is clearly still there.
Unfortunately, there were also too many moments where Rodgers looked old and diminished. He uncharacteristically missed several throws that we’ve all seen him make with ease for two decades:
Before 2024, I had rarely seen Rodgers play a bad game. Sure, he had games where he wasn’t great, but it almost never looked ugly.
2024 with the Jets certainly had some ugly moments.
If you cut Rodgers’ season into thirds and look at how he played in each, that inconsistency of his performance really comes to light.
Judging solely by how I thought Rodgers looked on the All-22, I think his season can be broken down as shown below:
His best 6 games where he looked like the Rodgers of old (Week 3 vs. the Patriots, Week 6 vs. the Bills, Week 9 vs. the Texans, Week 15 vs. the Jaguars, and 2 Games vs. the Dolphins).
His middle 5 games where he didn’t look bad but also wasn’t great (Week 1 vs. the 49ers, Week 2 vs. the Titans, Week 7 vs. the Steelers, Week 8 vs. the Patriots, Week 16 vs. the Rams).
His worst 6 games where he looked his age (Week 4 vs. the Broncos, Week 5 vs. the Vikings, Week 10 vs. the Cardinals, Week 11 vs. the Colts, Week 13 vs. the Seahawks, Week 17 vs. the Bills).
Here are his numbers across those 3 sets of games:
That’s a pretty big drop off from his best 6 to his middle 5 and certainly to his worst 6 games. Overall, that’s roughly two thirds of the season where Rodgers wasn’t exactly lighting things up.
The Injuries Impacted His Play
As Greg said, it’s hard to tell just how much the Achilles played a role in Rodgers’ performance. Everything you do as a quarterback starts with your feet, from your power, to your timing, to your accuracy, and of course to your ability to evade the rush inside and outside of the pocket.
But it wasn’t just the Achilles he had to contend with. Rodgers suffered a myriad of injuries to the same leg throughout the season, and they clearly impacted his play.
When he wasn’t right, it showed up in an obvious way. That’s when he would miss those throws that we never used to see him miss. Even more apparent was that the passing game would shrink to within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.
The Jets’ Week 11 loss to the Colts, one of Rodgers’ worst games of the season based on the all-22, was a great example of this. Only 5 of Rodgers’ 29 pass attempts traveled 10 yards or more from the line of scrimmage in that one. And you could see the effects of that on this 3rd-and-3.
Focus on Garrett Wilson at the top of the screen. Despite no help over the top, the cornerback over him had absolutely no fear of getting beat deep. He didn’t gain any depth and basically just sat at the sticks, ready to pounce:
You really don’t see that often against dangerous receivers like Wilson in the middle of the field.
In games like these, the strategy of the Jets’ passing game seemed to be how quickly Rodgers could get the ball out of his hand. Routes weren’t given a chance to develop. The offense became extremely predictable. And any disruption in the pocket led to the end of the play since Rodgers couldn’t do much to evade pressure.
You can tell that his performance was so clearly tethered to how healthy he was by how much (and how effectively) he was able to use his legs in the games where he did perform at a high level.
Arguably his four best games of the season came in Week 3 vs. the Patriots, Week 15 vs. the Jaguars, and the in the Jets’ two matchups against the Dolphins.
He rushed 3 times for 18 yards and 6 times for 45 yards in those Patriots and Jaguars games:
Not to mention, he had several plays in both where he used his legs to escape the pocket and then find receivers downfield:
In those two Dolphins games when he threw for a season high 339 yards in Week 15 and then a season-high 4 touchdowns in Week 18, you can see how comfortably he was moving:
Conversely, Rodgers’ worst game came against Minnesota after he injured his leg against the Broncos the week before. He then re-injured it (or hurt something new) in the middle of that game. Start to finish, he was largely immobile and fired 3 interceptions.
Injuries weren’t the only reason why Rodgers performed poorly when he did, but they were certainly a significant factor.
Projecting 2025
The problem with all of this is that you can’t really say “if Rodgers stays healthy, he’ll have a better season in 2025.” He clearly is no longer a young buck who can battle through injuries and still play at a high level while doing so.
Perhaps the offensive line will be better in his new destination. The Jets had protection problems throughout 2024. Some of that was masked by their quick passing game. But when they tried to go downfield, they often couldn’t.
Even with a better O-line, you have to assume Rodgers will get banged up at some point during the season. His play will likely drop off abruptly like it did this year as he fights through it.
Which means the question about Rodgers isn’t really, “Does he still have it?” There’s enough evidence to show that he clearly does. The question is, “How often will he have it?” That’s an answer no one knows and is the major risk factor in the decision to bring him in.
The optimistic point of view is that he’ll be one year further removed from the Achilles injury and have an offseason of getting better and stronger instead of trying to get back to full strength.
It’s possible that he wasn’t as strong because of the Achilles and that led to a higher susceptibility to injuries in the same leg. Maybe we’ll see a stronger left leg in general and better overall health in 2025? And that could mean we’ll see more consistent play and a higher floor.
The pessimistic point of view is that he’ll be a year older this season. 41 going on 42. The recovery time on tweaked muscles and sprained ankles generally doesn’t improve as you get older.
That’s the gamble teams have to make.
Off the Field
As for all the “off the field” negative baggage that allegedly comes with Rodgers, I don’t really put much stock in any of it.
You don’t have the level of success as an NFL quarterback that Rodgers has had for 20 years if you’re unable to communicate, collaborate, give and receive input from your teammates and coaches, and work well with others in general.
The idea that he’s a bad leader and teammate or a “locker room cancer” seems almost entirely driven by the media and the opinions of those outside the building. His teammates certainly don’t appear to feel the same way.
In fact, the “off the field” stuff and the intangibles should go in the “pros” column, not the “cons” column. No team currently has any player with the level of experience at the most important position that Rodgers does. And he’s already shown the willingness to mentor a young QB, as he did with Jordan Love for 3 years. He has bluntly said he’d be willing to do it again.
Any team with a young quarterback would benefit from having their future signal-caller sit behind Rodgers for a year and pick his brain.
So for any team that is interested in Rodgers based on their evaluation of him on the field, the off-the-field stuff should only bolster their position.
Which Teams Should Be Interested?
Assuming Rodgers doesn’t retire, any team with interest in a short-term answer at quarterback should be kicking the tires on him. Rodgers shouldn’t cost very much, and no team would need to make a long-term commitment to him. There is no “mortgaging of the future” to bring him in.
I could see two types of teams that might be interested in that respect. The first is a team that is looking to compete in 2025 and needs to take advantage of a window right now. The Vikings and Steelers immediately come to mind there.
2024 NFL Coach of the Year Kevin O’Connell isn’t anywhere near the hot seat in Minnesota, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t still urgency for the Vikings to win now. How much longer will they have Justin Jefferson in his prime, Jordan Addison on a rookie deal, and Brian Flores’ defense all together in the same building? This could be the last year.
If the Vikings decide they don’t want to give big money to Sam Darnold, are they comfortable giving this year to J.J. McCarthy, who is for all intents and purposes a rookie quarterback coming back from a serious knee injury? A one-year experiment with Rodgers wouldn’t hurt their future prospects or stunt McCarthy’s growth, especially since he could benefit greatly by learning from Rodgers.
In Pittsburgh, there also appears to be some urgency around the team to finally push all their chips into the middle instead of perpetually living in mediocrity (or slightly above mediocrity). Similar to the Vikings, how much longer will they have T.J. Watt in his prime? Could they catch lightning in a bottle with a healthier Rodgers in 2025?
The other type of team that could use Rodgers is a team that currently doesn’t have a good option at quarterback, might be taking one early in this year’s NFL Draft (which doesn’t look all that promising at the position), and has a GM and/or head coach who can’t afford to live through a year of rookie growing pains in 2025.
Bringing in Rodgers could make the team better immediately, help those head coaches and GMs on the hot seat show some progress, and buy them a little more time to build their team. Not to mention, it would allow their young QBs to learn from one of the all-time greats for a year.
The Giants and Titans come to mind here. Perhaps the Raiders could be an option considering Mark Davis has shown very little patience with his GMs and head coaches in recent years. Bringing in Rodgers could buy John Spytek and Pete Carroll a year of competent quarterback play instead of handing over the reins to an unknown from a weak QB class in year 1.
And then there are the long-shots, like the Rams, Colts, and 49ers.
If the Rams, who are young, talented, and definitely 2025 contenders, decided to make a crazy decision and part ways with Matthew Stafford for financial reasons, it might make sense to bring in a cheaper short-term option in Rodgers and see if they can make a run.
The Colts could be another interesting option. Who knows if Indianapolis is sold on Anthony Richardson at this point? He would certainly benefit from a year of watching Rodgers. Not to mention, head coach Shane Steichen needs to show some progress this year or he could be shown the door next offseason.
The AFC South is a winnable division. Despite the issues Indy has had in recent years, they do have talent that could benefit from an experienced quarterback. There’s also a football show Rodgers appears on every week that shoots in the Indianapolis area…
The 49ers have been floated as a team that might be interested in Rodgers. While this regime certainly hasn’t been afraid to mix things up and take chances at the quarterback position, I just don’t see it in this case. Brock Purdy has been to two conference championship games and a Super Bowl, and has played at a high level while guiding his team there.
Even if the 49ers aren’t interested in committing a ton of money to Purdy, there aren’t many paths that lead to Rodgers. I have a hard time seeing them benching Purdy for a year of Rodgers or trading him elsewhere only to be left with no quarterback in 2026 and beyond.
The other option for Rodgers, of course, would be to wait until a contending team loses its quarterback to injury during the 2025 season. That’s a bit of a crap shoot, though. While it could open up more doors for Rodgers, it also could leave him on the outside if there are no significant injuries next season.
Regardless of who bites, it will be and should be a short-term low-risk high-reward situation. As a football fan, I’m hoping it works out somewhere. I’d like to see one of the best to ever do it get one more shot.