What Does Aaron Rodgers Have Left?
And Which Teams Should Be Interested in Him?
“I think you have to put his season in the context of the fact that he’s a 40-year-old player who’s coming back from a really significant injury. I think people forget that when they look at his season.”
That’s what Greg Cosell, the Executive Producer of the NFL Matchup Show and watcher of more all-22 coaches film than anyone in the industry, had to say about Aaron Rodgers when I interviewed him in January.
He continued:
“When I watched him play this year, I still saw a quarterback that could throw it as well as anybody. He’s obviously as smart as any quarterback’s ever been.
I thought that his ball placement wasn’t as precise as we’ve seen in the past. I don’t know if that’s a function of his lower body or not because, as I said, coming back from an Achilles at his age is a big deal […].
But it was a very up and down season in terms of his overall quality and consistency of play. There were times he looked very good. And other times, he just seemed to miss some throws that we just were so used to him making in the past.
But I just really think that injury is being overlooked by a lot of people. That’s a really significant injury. And when he came back, sure he wasn’t limping around, but I have to believe that the injury really impacted his ability to play the way that we know he’s capable of.”
As Greg’s comments highlight, you have to factor in that Rodgers was just a year removed from tearing his Achilles when evaluating his play and projecting what he could be in 2025.
There’s no question that his performance this year was a disappointment, and the Jets’ 2024 season as a whole didn’t come anywhere close to meeting even modest expectations. They won fewer games with Rodgers than they did with Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, and Trevor Siemian at quarterback the year before.
However, as I wrote last month, Rodgers was not the main reason why. The Jets got worse in just about every major area of their team this season. The one place where they didn’t was in the passing game:
A Mixed Bag
Still, that doesn’t mean Rodgers played especially well. In fact, my thoughts on his performance echo what Greg said above. He was inconsistent.
There were times throughout the season when he looked like the Rodgers of old, hitting 1-on-1’s outside the numbers no matter how tight the coverage:
And moving defenders to create openings inside:
And fitting perfectly-placed passes into small windows:
The ability is clearly still there.
Unfortunately, there were also too many moments where Rodgers looked old and diminished. He uncharacteristically missed several throws that we’ve all seen him make with ease for two decades:
Before 2024, I had rarely seen Rodgers play a bad game. Sure, he had games where he wasn’t great, but it almost never looked ugly.
2024 with the Jets certainly had some ugly moments.
If you cut Rodgers’ season into thirds and look at how he played in each, that inconsistency of his performance really comes to light.
Judging solely by how I thought Rodgers looked on the All-22, I think his season can be broken down as shown below:
His best 6 games where he looked like the Rodgers of old (Week 3 vs. the Patriots, Week 6 vs. the Bills, Week 9 vs. the Texans, Week 15 vs. the Jaguars, and 2 Games vs. the Dolphins).
His middle 5 games where he didn’t look bad but also wasn’t great (Week 1 vs. the 49ers, Week 2 vs. the Titans, Week 7 vs. the Steelers, Week 8 vs. the Patriots, Week 16 vs. the Rams).
His worst 6 games where he looked his age (Week 4 vs. the Broncos, Week 5 vs. the Vikings, Week 10 vs. the Cardinals, Week 11 vs. the Colts, Week 13 vs. the Seahawks, Week 17 vs. the Bills).
Here are his numbers across those 3 sets of games:
That’s a pretty big drop off from his best 6 to his middle 5 and certainly to his worst 6 games. Overall, that’s roughly two thirds of the season where Rodgers wasn’t exactly lighting things up.
The Injuries Impacted His Play
As Greg said, it’s hard to tell just how much the Achilles played a role in Rodgers’ performance. Everything you do as a quarterback starts with your feet, from your power, to your timing, to your accuracy, and of course to your ability to evade the rush inside and outside of the pocket.
But it wasn’t just the Achilles he had to contend with. Rodgers suffered a myriad of injuries to the same leg throughout the season, and they clearly impacted his play.
When he wasn’t right, it showed up in an obvious way. That’s when he would miss those throws that we never used to see him miss. Even more apparent was that the passing game would shrink to within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.
The Jets’ Week 11 loss to the Colts, one of Rodgers’ worst games of the season based on the all-22, was a great example of this. Only 5 of Rodgers’ 29 pass attempts traveled 10 yards or more from the line of scrimmage in that one. And you could see the effects of that on this 3rd-and-3.
Focus on Garrett Wilson at the top of the screen. Despite no help over the top, the cornerback over him had absolutely no fear of getting beat deep. He didn’t gain any depth and basically just sat at the sticks, ready to pounce:
You really don’t see that often against dangerous receivers like Wilson in the middle of the field.
In games like these, the strategy of the Jets’ passing game seemed to be how quickly Rodgers could get the ball out of his hand. Routes weren’t given a chance to develop. The offense became extremely predictable. And any disruption in the pocket led to the end of the play since Rodgers couldn’t do much to evade pressure.
You can tell that his performance was so clearly tethered to how healthy he was by how much (and how effectively) he was able to use his legs in the games where he did perform at a high level.
Arguably his four best games of the season came in Week 3 vs. the Patriots, Week 15 vs. the Jaguars, and the in the Jets’ two matchups against the Dolphins.
He rushed 3 times for 18 yards and 6 times for 45 yards in those Patriots and Jaguars games:
Not to mention, he had several plays in both where he used his legs to escape the pocket and then find receivers downfield:
In those two Dolphins games when he threw for a season high 339 yards in Week 15 and then a season-high 4 touchdowns in Week 18, you can see how comfortably he was moving:
Conversely, Rodgers’ worst game came against Minnesota after he injured his leg against the Broncos the week before. He then re-injured it (or hurt something new) in the middle of that game. Start to finish, he was largely immobile and fired 3 interceptions.
Injuries weren’t the only reason why Rodgers performed poorly when he did, but they were certainly a significant factor.
Projecting 2025
The problem with all of this is that you can’t really say “if Rodgers stays healthy, he’ll have a better season in 2025.” He clearly is no longer a young buck who can battle through injuries and still play at a high level while doing so.