Should These Top-Tier Head Coaches be on the Hot Seat in 2025?

NFL History Says They Should

John Harbaugh, Mike Tomlin, Sean McDermott, and Matt LaFleur are four of the best coaches in the NFL. But history is working against each of them in a serious way.

What’s that history? Let’s start with McDermott and LaFleur.

Sean McDermott and Matt LaFleur

McDermott has been the Bills Head Coach for 8 seasons. He instantly turned them into a perennial playoff team after 18 straight years of being left out of the post-season. That includes 2 AFC Championship Game appearances. I love a lot of what he does schematically on defense (except for when the Bills play the Chiefs).

LaFleur has been the Packers Head Coach for 6 seasons. He’s been to the playoffs 5 times, including two NFC Championship games. He helped Aaron Rodgers win 2 MVPs and has turned the talented Jordan Love into one of the top young quarterbacks in the NFL.

Similar to McDermott, I love a lot of what I see from LaFleur on film, including the way he makes in-game adjustments on offense.

But neither McDermott or LaFleur have reached the Super Bowl.

You might be saying, “So what? They’ve had a ton of success. They’ll eventually break through!” And you’re not necessarily wrong to believe that.

But history tells us that a head coach who doesn’t make it to the Super Bowl in his first 6 seasons with a team generally never does with that same team.

It’s only happened four times, in fact. Tom Landry reached his first Super Bowl in his 11th season with the Cowboys (1970). John Madden reached it in his 8th season with the Raiders (1976).

They are the only head coaches in NFL history to reach their first Super Bowl with their first team in year 7 or later.

In the half century since Madden’s Super Bowl XI win, only two other head coaches (Mike Holmgren and Andy Reid) have reached the Super Bowl after failing to do so in their first 6 seasons with the same team. Both accomplished this in their second stints as head coach.

Holmgren got to the Super Bowl in year 7 with the Seahawks (2005). Reid also got there in his 7th season with the Chiefs (2019).

The patience that Seattle and Kansas City had with Holmgren and Reid was likely due to the fact that both had proven they knew what it took to get over the hump in their first head-coaching gigs.

Holmgren reached two Super Bowls with the Packers (winning one of them) before moving on to Seattle. Reid led the Eagles to a Super Bowl in 2004.

The Bills and Packers can’t say the same thing about McDermott and LaFleur.

So that begs the question; is this historical trend just a coincidence, or is there something driving this?

Maybe there’s a reason that head coaches don’t make it to the Super Bowl if they haven’t proven the ability to do so early in their tenure.

Perhaps it’s in those first 3-6 years when they generally have their best roster and salary cap situation. Perhaps that’s when they have the best chance to put their imprint on the team and set the culture for good. Perhaps it’s in those early years that the team has the opportunity to win with scheme that the league hasn’t caught onto yet.

Maybe it’s only in those first few years that a team can peak? The salary cap comes for everyone, and eventually the process of trying to build a winner becomes the process of maintaining whatever the highest level is that’s been achieved.

That includes letting some key players walk. It includes getting rid of other key players a year too early instead of a year too late. It involves the constant attempt to replace old parts with young parts that have potential but don’t always pan out or fit.

And if you’re only maintaining after not having reached the mountain top already, it’s hard to finally get over the hump at that point.

Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh

Tomlin and Harbaugh have similar history working against them.

While both have won Super Bowls, they did so a loooooooooong time ago. Tomlin has now gone 14 straight seasons without making a Super Bowl appearance. Harbaugh has gone 12 straight seasons.

For context, Bill Belichick (who apparently the game has “passed by”) has won 3 Super Bowls since Tomlin or Harbaugh last appeared in one.

More importantly, history indicates that Tomlin and Harbaugh will likely never get to another one, at least not with the Steelers or Ravens. That’s because no head coach has failed to appear in a Super Bowl with one team for as long as Harbaugh and Tomlin have and then gone on to reach the Super Bowl with that same team.

The two closest examples are Don Shula and Bill Cowher. Shula reached his 4th Super Bowl in 1973 with the Dolphins and didn’t get back to another one until 9 years later in 1982. Cowher reached the Super Bowl in 1995 and then 2005 with the Steelers.

So again, this begs the question of whether or not this historical trend is meaningful.

Perhaps it isn’t in this case, and we should just marvel at what Tomlin and Harbaugh have accomplished to this point in their careers. Only a handful of coaches in NFL history have even been able to stick with one team for as long as they have. Even fewer have gotten the opportunity to stick around for 12 or 14 years after their most recent Super Bowl appearance.

Perhaps the Steelers and Ravens are smart to maintain stability and stick with the same head coaches, unlike other franchises that have become impatient and moved on.

We could just be in uncharted waters here. Tomlin and/or Harbaugh could be on the brink of doing something no one in history has because no one else has been given the opportunity.

There has to be a first time for everything, right?

At the same time, maybe the historical trend is significant. Maybe a coach’s messaging gets too stale over time, especially if they haven’t appeared in a title game in a while.

Or perhaps, teams around the league have enough tape and experience to know what makes a head coach tick in key situations, leading to them falling short in big moments.

Maybe the trends of the NFL become too much for a long-time coach to keep up with.

Hesitate as a franchise and you might miss out on the opportunity to move on from a Tom Landry to a Jimmy Johnson.

In the case of Harbaugh and Tomlin, it’s puzzling that neither has been able to get back to the big game in so long. Talent certainly hasn’t been the issue, particularly at the most important position.

Tomlin had a future Hall-of-Famer and 2-time Super Bowl winner in Ben Roethlisberger for 11 more seasons after his last appearance in 2010.

In Harbaugh’s 12 years since hoisting the Lombardi, he’s had a Super Bowl MVP in Joe Flacco for 6 years and then a 2-time regular-season MVP in Lamar Jackson for the next 6.

Still, the Steelers and Ravens have fallen short of the mountain top.

How Long Should the Leash be?

All good things come to an end. Who knows when that time is for each of these head coaches? LaFleur probably deserves the longest leash and might be most likely to buck the historical trend working against him since the Packers are a young team that still seems to be ascending.

It’s tough to say the same about the Bills, Ravens, and Steelers. Each might currently be among the best in the NFL, but all three seem to lose too early in the playoffs and for the same reasons every year.

I’m definitely not advocating for any of these coaches to lose their job. Again, they are four of the best.

But if the Super Bowl is truly a priority for these franchises, change has to at least be considered if they fail to reach the big game again in 2025.

This is especially true since there’s a certain coach out there with 8 rings who might be available in 2026.