Is Sam Darnold Worth a Big-Money Contract?

The biggest question with Sam Darnold is whether or not 2024 was an anomaly. It’s unfair to say he was just a product of a great situation, because if you put the 2019 or 2020 version of Darnold on the Vikings, he doesn’t have the same season that he did last year.

He fundamentally looked like a different quarterback.

That said, there are few situations better for a quarterback than what the Vikings had last year: Kevin O’Connell’s system, Justin Jefferson in his prime, Jordan Addison as your #2 receiver, T.J. Hockenson at tight end, and Aaron Jones out of the backfield.

I also can’t stress enough how much defenses key on Justin Jefferson, which opens up 1-on-1 situations elsewhere.

Therefore, it’s so tough to determine how much of Darnold’s success was a product of his play versus how much was the situation. And that makes the decision of whether or not to commit big money to him a difficult one (for any team).

To make that determination, it helps to break down what was different about Darnold’s play in 2024 vs. earlier in his career. As I mentioned, all the success he had last year wasn’t solely a product of the situation. There was some noticeable improvement to many areas of his game, and that’s not something that will necessarily disappear next season and beyond.

Pocket Presence

Hanging in the pocket and maintaining a good throwing base were not strong aspects of Darnold’s game early in his career. At the slightest hint of pressure, his feet would break down. Just take a look at this play from the infamous “seeing ghosts” game in his second season:

Often, Darnold’s feet wouldn’t move with his eyes and would get stuck in one place as he scanned the field:

That type of footwork obviously impacted his accuracy. However, it also meant it would take more time for him to get rid of the ball after spotting an open receiver because he still had to reset his feet.

That extra time led to defenders closing, windows disappearing, and potential big plays being left on the field.

But fast forward to last season, and you can see how Darnold didn’t get frenetic in the pocket when his first read wasn’t there or when a pass rusher flashed. His feet didn’t get stuck. They moved with his eyes:

On this play, Darnold could feel that he had the time to hang in and didn’t need to abandon the pocket. He looked at all 5 of his receivers before getting back to T.J. Hockenson a second time and hitting him for the completion. That’s about as good as it gets.

Leave a comment below! Where do you think Darnold ends up?
Would you want him as your quarterback?

Getting Through Progressions

Darnold made some terrible decisions early in his career. Some of that was the result of poor play-calling, a leaky o-line, and the underwhelming receivers around him.

But often, it was rooted in the fact that he wasn’t willing to sit in the pocket and work through his progressions (like he did above) if his first read or two weren’t open.

So he’d force throws.

This particular 3rd-and-4 from the 2019 season was a great example. Here, the Steelers rotated from a single-high safety look to Tampa-2 at the snap. In Tampa-2, the middle linebacker opens to the passing strength of the formation and is responsible for any inside vertical seam route. In this case, that was to Darnold’s left where the Jets had 3 receivers aligned:

One of the best places to attack Tampa-2 is the area behind the middle linebacker.

Here, the Jets ran a Dagger concept to the left and had a dig route coming from the other side right into that sweet spot:

Darnold should have easily seen this and hit the dig coming from the backside for an easy completion.

But he didn’t. He locked onto the seem/thru route and forced this ball into a tight window for what should have been an interception:

The only explanation is that instead of reading and reacting to the defense, Darnold predetermined this throw.

Plays like these were a common occurrence before he arrived in Minnesota. But I didn’t see nearly as many traces of this last year.

In fact, here’s an example of Darnold recognizing Tampa-2 and then quickly hitting a route in the void to the back-side of the middle linebacker:

From the end zone angle, you can see Darnold look left initially, recognize that it was Tampa-2, and instantly understand that the backside would be available. You can tell this by the fact that the second he planted his back foot, he immediately turned his head and body to the right to deliver this ball. There was no hesitation:

What a throw.

Everything seemed to slow down and become clearer for Darnold last season. Below is one more example of him calmly moving through his reads before finding his 3rd receiver for a touchdown.

Watch him look right initially, eliminate the first two routes of the progression, take an additional hitch, and then find his 3rd receiver coming across the middle:

That receiver wasn’t wide open either. An accurate pass was still needed, and Darnold delivered.

A play like that is a sign of a comfortable quarterback who is processing fast but isn’t hurrying.

Doing the Little Things Right

The traits that lead to consistency (e.g. processing, anticipation, etc.) are where Darnold had been hit or miss (mostly miss) throughout his career.

With the Vikings, he refined those traits. Just look at the anticipation he threw with on these two 3rd-and-longs against the Texans in Week 3: