The playoffs are finally here!
Below you can check out how every team matches up in the Wild Card Round based on team stats. Dig in, find the mismatches, and watch closely to see which teams exploit their opponents’ weaknesses on game day.
Remember: Green = Good, Red = Bad.
I’ve also provided some additional numbers that are specific and critical to each matchup. Enjoy!
Rams vs. Panthers
Panthers Offense vs. Rams Defense
One distinct advantage on this side of the ball goes to the Rams pass rush, which finished the year 4th in pressure % according to Pro-Football-Reference. The Panthers finished 22nd in pressure % allowed.
The Rams don’t bring more than 4 very often, instead relying on stunts across the D-line and simulated pressures. According to Cody Alexander of MatchQuarters, they stunted more frequently than any other defense and were 5th in Sim Pressure %.
The Rams defense was top-10 in scoring but just 19th in rushing yards per attempt this season. This seems to be their underbelly.
In their first matchup in Week 13, the Panthers targeted this area, calling 35 runs to 24 passes. They picked up 141 yards on those 35 designed runs.
In terms of situational football and plays that can alter the tenor of a game, the Rams defense has a distinct advantage. They finished 3rd in % of drives ending in a takeaway, while the Panthers offense finished 29th. The Rams were 7th on 3rd down, while the Panthers were 25th. L.A.’s defense was also 3rd in red-zone scoring. The Panthers were 24th.
However, in that first matchup, the Panthers were 3 for 3 on 4th down with two touchdowns. The 3 conversions led to 17 points.
The Panthers passing game was among the worst in the NFL this season (26th in yards, 27th in net passing yards per attempt).
But they seem to save their best for last. Bryce Young led 4 fourth-quarter come-from behind game-winning drives and 6 game-winning drives overall. He has 12 since entering the league, the most during that span.
Rams Offense vs. Panthers Defense
The Rams were the top-ranked offense in the NFL this season (1st in points, yards, and yards per play).
No passing game was more dangerous than the Rams’ this season. They finished the year first in passing yards and completions of 20 yards or more and were 2nd in air yards per completion.
The Panthers did a good job of not allowing the big play through the air this season (7th fewest completions of 20 yards or more), which should serve them well vs. L.A.
The Panthers were among the league leaders in frequency of zone coverage according to to Cody Alexander of MatchQuarters, with cover-3 and cover-2 as their preferred defenses. The Rams were top-5 in EPA against both coverages this season and zone coverage in general, though.
The Rams had the highest % of under-center snaps this season (59.9%) according to Pro-Football-Reference. That’s a big part of their offense as they are effective at running the ball (2nd in % of runs gaining 4 yards or more) and using play-action off of it (1st in frequency, 4th in passer rating on play-action).
The Rams led the league in “13” personnel usage (1 RB, 3 TEs). That personnel grouping also contributes to the effectiveness of both their run game and play-action passing attack. L.A. finished this season with the highest EPA out of 13 personnel according to SumerSports.
The Rams finished 4th in giveaways this season, but they committed 3 turnovers in their first matchup against Carolina, including a pick-6. Those were key to the Panthers winning that first matchup.
Matthew Stafford had a season that should lead to the first MVP award of his career. He led the NFL in passing yards (4,707) and touchdowns (46), with just 8 interceptions.
Stafford has also had an outstanding playoff career thus far:
10 Games
Super Bowl LVI Champion
66.5 completion %
299.6 yards per game
8.2 yards per att
19 TD-6 INT
102.3 passer rating
Packers vs. Bears
Bears Offense vs. Packers Defense
The Bears ranked 27th in pressure % allowed this season according to Pro-Football-Reference. But they also allowed the 3rd-fewest sacks, an indicator of Caleb Williams’ great ability to escape pressure.
The Packers had a similar pass-rushing profile this season, ranking 7th in pressure % but just 20th in sacks.
The Bears offense is centered around their run game, which finished 3rd in yards, 3rd in yards per attempt, and 1st in % of runs gaining 4 yards or more.
They have an advantage in this area over the Packers, who finished 18th in yards per game, 12th in yards per attempt, and two weeks ago allowed 307 yards on the ground to the Ravens.
In their first two matchups this season, the Bears rushed for 288 yards on 58 carries (4.97 yards per rush).
The Bears like to run play-action off of their run game. They finished the season with the 2nd highest frequency of play-action passes according to Pro Football Focus.
The Bears finished 2nd in % of throws that took more than 2.5 seconds to come out, another indicator of Williams’ scrambling tendencies.
That certainly played a role at the ends of games, where Williams has been outstanding this season (6 fourth-quarter come-from-behind wins).
The Packers defense was bottom-10 in the league in blitz frequency this season. Although part of that was likely the Micah Parsons factor.
We’ll see if defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley changes up that tendency given Parsons’ absence and Green Bay’s 4-game losing streak to end the season, a span where they sacked the quarterback just 3 times.
If they do blitz, Chicago should be ready as Caleb Williams finished the year with a 106.9 passer rating vs. the blitz.
Packers Offense vs. Bears Defense
The Bears led the NFL in takeaways this season with 33.
However, their defense struggles if they can’t generate turnovers. They were bottom-10 in points allowed and bottom-5 in yards allowed.
The Packers, on the other hand, were great at protecting the ball, finishing the year with the 3rd-fewest giveaways.
The Bears also struggled to stop the run all season, finishing 27th in yards, 29th in yards per attempt, and dead last in % of runs gaining 4 yards or more.
Matt LaFleur wants to run the ball, and the Packers utilized the ground game at the 5th-highest rate this season.
Despite the Packers not being as effective at running it this season (15th in yards per game, 24th in yards per attempt), you’ll likely see them try to attack this area of the Bears defense and neutralize their ability to create turnovers.
Opponents have opted to run outside the tackles vs. the Bears this season, doing so 57.8% of the time, a league high according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
Green Bay’s passing game has a go-for-broke philosophy. No team had more passing yards come from throws traveling 20 yards or more from the line of scrimmage this season according to Pro Football Focus.
They also finished the year with the 6th most completions of 20 yards or more, a reflection of Jordan Love’s tendency to push the ball downfield as well as some great scheme.
The Bears allowed the 2nd-most completions of 20 yards or more this season.
Matt LaFleur is always excellent with his play-action concepts. The Packers finished the year 4th in EPA on play-action, with the Bears defense finishing 17th defending it according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
The Bears were among the league leaders in man coverage frequency this season. But they were towards the bottom of the league in EPA according to to Cody Alexander of MatchQuarters. The Packers finished the year at the top of the league in EPA vs. man coverage.