We’re onto the Divisional Round, which is generally the best weekend of the football season (although it will be hard to top last week).
Again, I’ve provided some additional metrics and info along with our normal head-to-head comparisons based on team stats.
Remember: Green = Good, Red = Bad.
Bills vs. Broncos
Broncos Offense vs. Bills Defense
The Bills’ run defense finished the year 28th in yards allowed, 30th in yards per attempt, and 29th in runs of 10 yards or more. This is their biggest vulnerability on this side of the ball.
But will the Broncos be able to take advantage? Their run game has been middle-of-the-pack this year (16th in yards per game, 15th in yards per attempt). They also only run the ball 41.8% of the time (22nd in the NFL).
Teams have chosen to attack the outside in the run game vs. the Bills this season, with 57.3% of all rushing attempts going outside the tackles, the 2nd most in the NFL according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Last week vs. Jacksonville, the Bills allowed 98 rushing yards on 13 carries outside the tackles.
The Broncos run the ball outside the tackles 55.3% of the time (9th in the NFL).
The Bills are a predominant 2-shell defense that has been especially effective in zone coverage (top-5 in EPA according to Cody Alexander of MatchQuarters).
The Broncos have seen the 2nd-highest rate of zone coverage this season and were 11th in EPA according to MatchQuarters.
Don’t expect to see many big plays through the air in this one. Buffalo keeps everything in front of them in the passing game. They allowed the 4th-fewest 20-yard completions in the NFL this season.
The Broncos also don’t attack downfield through the air very often. They threw the ball more than 10 yards from the line of scrimmage just 31.3% of the time this season (28th in the NFL). They weren’t very effective when they did this season either (28th in air yards per completion, 16th in pass plays of 20 yards or more).
Instead, Denver tends to attack with a short passing game. This year, they finished 5th in % of passes under 10 yards from the line of scrimmage, 9th in % of throws that came out in less than 2.5 seconds, 5th in RPO frequency, and 3rd in screen frequency.
This likely contributed to the Broncos allowing the fewest sacks and having the lowest sack % in the NFL this season.
Bo Nix’s ability to scramble and make plays with his legs also factored into this (he was 8th in the NFL with 296 scramble yards according to Pro Football Focus).
Bills Offense vs. Broncos Defense
The Broncos defense doesn’t have many weak spots. They were 3rd in points allowed, 1st in total yards per play allowed, 1st in net passing yards per attempt, and 3rd in rushing yards per attempt.
Their pass rush might be the best in the NFL. They finished the year first in sacks (by a wide margin), 1st in sack %, and 2nd in pressure %.
They can get pressure in multiple ways, but the Broncos still choose to blitz often (6th in the NFL according to Pro-Football-Reference).
Josh Allen ranked 25th against the blitz this season with just an 88.9 passer rating (among qualified passers).
However, Allen led all quarterbacks with 444 yards on scrambles according to Pro Football Focus.
Allen only scrambled 3 times for 15 yards last week vs. Jacksonville. It’s unclear how healthy his ankle is. The ability or inability to escape vs. Denver’s pass rush will play a big role in this one.
The Bills will likely try to use play-action and screens to neutralize Denver’s pass rush (3rd and 8th in frequency respectively).
Staying in manageable 3rd down situations will also be key for the Bills. They’ve been outstanding this season on 3rd down (4th in the NFL). But the Broncos defense has been every bit as good (#2 ranked defense on 3rd down).
The Broncos are an aggressive defense front to back. They played the 2nd-highest frequency of man coverage this season according to MatchQuarters.
The Bills saw the highest frequency of man coverage this season. Considering Josh Allen is such a threat with his legs and defensive coordinators don’t like their defenders to turn their backs to him, that’s a great insight into how the league views Bills receivers and their inability to win 1-on-1 matchups.
The Bills might try to lean on their run game to neutralize Denver’s pass rushers. They had the number-1 rushing offense in the NFL (159.6 yards per game) and the 2nd-most runs of 10 yards or more.
While the Broncos are no slouch in this department (3rd in rushing yards per attempt, 2nd in 10-yard runs allowed), the Bills had the 2nd-highest run-play frequency this season and might choose to be persistent with it.
This is what they did last year in the divisional round vs. Baltimore. The Ravens had the #1 ranked rushing defense, but the Bills kept going after them on the ground to control the pace of the game. They ran the ball on 36 of 59 plays (61%) and had success doing so (147 yards, 4.1 avg, 3 TDs). We’ll see if they take the same approach.
Josh Allen has had an excellent playoff career so far:
14 Games (Bills W-L: 8-6)
66.7 completion %
259.4 pass yards per game
35 Total TDs (26 passing, 9 rushing)
4 INTs
102.4 passer rating
701 rushing yards (50.1 yds per game)
5.7 rushing yards per attempt