The NFL Draft is finally here, and there are as many unknowns in this first round as any in recent memory. Here are my 5 biggest questions for tonight:
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1) Will the Jets take Arvell Reese or David Bailey?
We all know that the Raiders will be selecting Fernando Mendoza with the first overall pick. That means the draft really starts at pick #2 with the Jets.
The reporting in the last few weeks has gone back and forth between the Jets taking Arvell Reese and David Bailey. Reese previously seemed like a foregone conclusion, but now things seem to be leaning in the direction of Bailey.
Overall, I think Reese is the better player. He can contribute in more ways and in both phases. But the Jets seem to want to use this pick to get an impact pass rusher. Which means the choice isn’t between Reese the overall player and Bailey. It’s a choice between Reese as an edge rusher and Bailey. And right now Bailey is more of a sure thing in that department, at least in the near term.
And that “near term” piece is a huge part of this. Both GM Darren Mougey and Head Coach Aaron Glenn need quick results in year 2 for a variety of reasons. Reese might end up being the better overall player in the long term, but Bailey fits their pass-rushing need more immediately.
Or at least I think this is the reasoning the Jets would have for taking Bailey over Reese. All that being said, I still wouldn’t be surprised by the Jets taking Reese.
You can see my breakdowns of both players below:
2) Who drafts Jeremiyah Love?
As I mentioned on the podcast a few weeks ago, you have to throw “positional value” out the window when discussing Jeremiyah Love. He’s a dynamic weapon that will make any run game better and will contribute substantially in the passing game.
The Cardinals at pick #3 make a ton of sense since new head coach Mike LaFleur wants the run game to be the foundation of his offensive approach. Who better to build that type of offense around than a player like Love?
If they don’t take him, then the Titans and Giants make a lot of sense for similar reasons; both have 2nd-year quarterbacks who need all the help they can get around them. Having a dynamic rushing attack, as well as a player who can help create pre-snap coverage indicators and 1-on-1 matchup problems in the passing game, would do wonders for both.
I don’t know who is going to take Love, but he might be the best overall prospect in this draft. I’d be shocked to see him make it out of the top-5.
You can check out more of my thoughts on why Love is so special below:
3) What will the Giants do with their two top-10 picks?
For the second time in 5 years, the Giants have two top-10 picks in the same draft. It takes a special level of incompetence and losing for that to happen. But hopefully with John Harbaugh at the helm, the Giants will be able to use these picks to help find their way out of this 15-year rut.
The interesting thing is that the Giants could go in a number of different directions. They likely won’t be able to address their two biggest needs, interior D-line and interior O-line, with these picks. Although maybe they use that 10th pick to take Penn State guard Olaivavega Ioane (or move back a few spots to take him and get an additional later-round pick).
But in all likelihood, they’re going to be adding players to fortify positions or address needs that are a little less dire. RB Jeremiyah Love, LB Sonny Styles, S Caleb Downs, WR Jordyn Tyson, and a few others all seem to be on the table.
No matter what position they address, the Giants need an infusion of talent first and foremost. Giving up a player like Dexter Lawrence, who I think still has good football left in him, needs to result in an impactful player with that 10th overall pick.
The bottom line is that these two top-10 picks have to amount to far more than what they got from Kayvon Thibodeaux and Evan Neal.
4) Does Kenyon Sadiq go higher than expected?
Most mock drafts I’ve seen have Kenyon Sadiq going in the back half of the first round. Given how important tight ends are to NFL passing games, that seems surprising.
So are there any teams in the first 16 picks where taking a chance on Sadiq would make sense?
The first obvious potential landing spot would be Kansas City. I know they have other needs, but wouldn’t this be a perfect fit?
That passing game has gone through the tight end position for years. Wouldn’t adding a player like Sadiq allow the Chiefs to take advantage of 2-tight end sets for a year and then give them a great replacement for Kelce for the back half of Patrick Mahomes’ career?
I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Chiefs take Sadiq (or trade down and then take him).
The Rams are another team that might make sense here. In case you hadn’t heard, Sean McVay leaned on “13” personnel (3 tight ends) often last year. The Rams were very effective in doing so, but I’ll bet you can’t name one of those tight ends unless you’re a Rams fan or a football junkie.
Adding Sadiq to an offense that already includes Puka Nacua and Davante Adams would give McVay yet another way to create mismatches and torment defenses.
Where he goes is something I’ll watch closely tonight. You can check out my full Kenyon Sadiq breakdown below:
5) Will Ty Simpson be taken in the first round?
Ty Simpson has a lot of traits to like. He’s got a strong arm, athleticism, and the ability to attack the middle of the field. Unfortunately, there don’t seem to be a lot of spots for him in the first round.
Perhaps the Steelers are an option at pick #21? Or the Browns at 24?
Most QB-needy teams seem to prefer waiting for that 2027 class to take a quarterback early. However, you might see a team with a pick at the top of the 2nd round trade back into the 24-32 range in order to take Simpson and get that 5th-year option.
The Cardinals have been rumored to be considering this type of move. If they also took Love with the 3rd overall pick, Simpson would have a great situation to step into with lots of weapons around him (Love, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr.).
Still, you might see most QB-needy teams stay away until the 2nd round or later and wait things out until next year.
My overall feeling, however, is that if a team likes Simpson, they should take him in the back of the first round and get that 5th-year option instead of holding out for 2027. There’s no guarantee that the class will shake out the way everyone expects (injuries, performance, etc.) or that the teams in need will be in position to get one of those premier quarterback prospects.
Either way, I think Simpson does have the chance to develop into a good player at the NFL level:
Quick name a RB taken in the top ten that has won a Super Bowl in the past decade? 20 years? Saquon and ????? There isn’t one. Many RBs taken in the top 5 during the last two decade never made it or lost I believe in the playoffs or maybe even the Super Bowl. Adrian Petersen won MVPs and never won one. The Giants might be better with Love but to me they have other positions more important that need to be filled in the weak ass draft. Passing one Styles or Downs just to have them possibly haunt you as the Commanders pick almost right after you would suck. You know there will be a chip there. Styles is my guy at 5. Best WR available at 10 or trade down.