Feel free to read the transcript on it’s own or use it (and the plays I included) to follow along with the podcast to get more context for what I’m talking about.

Subscribe now

In this episode, I discuss the following:

• Why Every Quarterback Needs Help

• Joe Montana’s Early Years

• Tom Brady’s Development

• Breaking Down Fernando Mendoza

• Breaking Down Ty Simpson

• Mendoza vs. Simpson

• Who Should be Interested?

Here is a direct link to the podcast, and below that you can find the transcript and plays:

The Football Film Room Show - Episode #25 Transcript

Welcome to the Football Film Room Show. I’m Nick Kehoe, and we’ve got another great episode for you today.

We’re going to talk about the top quarterback prospects in the draft. A couple weeks ago, nobody was talking about anyone other than Fernando Mendoza. Seemed like a foregone conclusion that he’d be going number one overall to the Raiders.

And based on reports that he is already learning the Raiders playbook, it seems like that’s still a foregone conclusion. But in recent weeks, Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has entered the discussion.

And that’s thanks in large part to Dan Orlovsky throwing a giant turd in the punch bowl and mixing things up, I guess you could say. Saying that he thinks Ty Simpson is actually the better prospect.

So I’ll get into all that. I’ll break down both players’ games, tell you their strengths and weaknesses, compare the two, and tell you why I don’t entirely disagree with Orlovsky’s analysis.

But before I do that, I want to reiterate a point I made on the podcast a few weeks ago about the quarterback position in general…

Every Quarterback Needs Friends

When you look at the all-time great quarterbacks, there are very few in the history of the NFL who you can say they’d still be considered all-time greats no matter what situation they were in, no matter what team they were drafted by or traded to or signed with.

I think you could even make the argument that there are no quarterbacks in the history of the game that would have still had their level of success had they been in any other situation.

And that’s because football is the quintessential team sport. It depends who you have blocking for you. It depends who you’re throwing to, what running game you have to support you.

And on top of that, it depends who your head coach is, what his philosophy is. It depends who your offensive coordinator is, who’s calling the plays. Depends who your quarterback coach is. Depends how you’re developed.

And if you want a little proof of that, just think about who the two best quarterbacks are in the history of the game, at least according to the general NFL-world consensus. Tom Brady and Joe Montana. Now, I’m not going to get into a discussion with you today about if they are actually the best. We’ll save that for another time. But I think that’s just the general consensus.

But the interesting thing is that both of those quarterbacks would not be considered the GOATs if not for the exact situations they were in.

Now, again, I want to emphasize, I’m not trying to take away from either quarterback. I’m not trying to say that each individual player doesn’t have a significant amount of say in how well they play, how well they perform based on their preparation, physical training, their mental makeup, etc.

But I think it’s hard to deny that Joe Montana would be the Joe Montana we all know and love if he hadn’t been drafted by Bill Walsh. And I think the same can be true of Tom Brady with the Patriots.

Joe Montana’s Early Years

Let’s go back to 1979. That was the year that Montana was drafted. He was not highly regarded around the NFL at that time. He ended up getting drafted 82nd overall, end of the third round.

But there were questions about his size. He was 6’2”, but just 185 pounds. Receiver Dwight Clark, when he first met him, he thought he was the kicker or the punter. So there were questions about could he withstand the beating that quarterbacks in the NFL took at that time.

He didn’t have a powerful arm. And in that era, the NFL passing game was kind of a complement to the run. You were attacking downfield. No one was dinking and dunking and getting four yards at a time.

And then, of course, Bill Walsh came along. 1979 was his first year as the 49ers head coach. We all know now that he implemented that West Coast offense where the passing game was based on timing and rhythm and you mixed in short throws with your intermediate and downfield passes.

And because he was the only one running his offense that way, he saw something in Montana. He liked how quick and agile his feet were. I believe he said Montana looked a bit like a ballet dancer. That’s how smooth and rhythmic he could be with his feet:

And that fit perfectly for his passing game:

So he was able to push aside the fact that Montana didn’t have an especially strong arm or was inconsistent in college or was slight in his build.

And I think it’s fair to say that if Montana had been drafted anywhere else, he may not have been playing in a system that was perfectly suited for those abilities.

On top of that, Walsh didn’t just throw Montana into the fire. Montana barely played his first season. He only had one start.

But here’s the thing. Walsh found ways to insert him into the game at times. But he wouldn’t do it randomly. He was very deliberate with the way he developed Montana. He would wait until the offense crossed midfield so that he could put Montana in position to succeed. And again, he did it sparingly. Montana threw just 23 passes that season. 49ers went 2-14.

The next year they came back, and Walsh started to work Montana into the offense a little bit more. Same sort of thing. He would put Montana in when it was advantageous to do so, when he could be put in a position to succeed, either in the opponent’s territory or in the red zone.

And eventually, by season’s end, Montana became the starter:

I think he started seven games that year in total. But there were 11 overall games where he threw a pass. So again, Walsh was very intentional with the way he developed Montana.

And then 1981 comes along. That’s the first year he’s the full-time starter. 49ers go 13-3, go on to win the Super Bowl, and the rest is history.

But I think it’s safe to say that wouldn’t have happened anywhere else.

Tom Brady’s Development

Read more

And that brings us to Ty Simpson, Alabama quarterback, obviously. You know, the more I watched him on film, the more I liked him. He’s got a strong arm. He’s athletic. He’s not Josh Allen by any means, but he’s got a stronger arm than Mendoza. There were some throws that you say, oh, wow, that that jumped out of his hand:

Subscribe now

He can make throws flat footed because he does have a strong arm:

So he can make any throw that you need him to in the NFL. Where he really excels is in the middle of the field. Now, he was running an NFL-style offense at Alabama, and there were a ton of throws where he had to navigate the intermediate middle, where he had to hit digs late in the play. And not only could he do that, he seemed comfortable doing that. He seemed like that was his preference:

It almost seemed like there would be plays where he would look to the left and there would be a two or three-receiver combination, and he’d come off it early because he wanted to hit that dig over the middle.

But there were also times where, hey, he read it out correctly. There was nobody open to one side, came back to the backside, his fourth receiver, and then he drilled a dig into a window between two defenders, into a tiny window between two defenders:

Read more

Feel free to read the transcript on it’s own or use it (and the plays I included) to follow along with the podcast to get more context for what I’m talking about.

Subscribe now

In this episode, I discuss the following:

• Odell Beckham Jr. and A.J. Brown getting the Rams and Eagles over the hump

• The Broncos’ holes on offense

• What Jaylen Waddle brings to Denver

• How Mike Evans helps the quarterback

• Why the 49ers signed Evans

Here is a direct link to the podcast, and below that you can find the transcript and plays:

The Football Film Room Show - Episode #24 Transcript

Welcome to the Football Film Room Show. I’m Nick Kehoe. We’ve got another great episode for you today.

Can one player make a difference?

It’s a discussion you often hear around the NFL, right? Oh, if only we had signed this one player, we’d be Super Bowl champs! If only this one player hadn’t gotten hurt, we would have won it all!

Shoot, I talked about it a couple weeks ago, bringing up the Green Bay Packers from 2020 and 2021. That was a team that was knocking on the doorstep, and instead of making that one move for that one player, whether it was a receiver, to complement Davante Adams, or a defensive player, an impact player…

Instead of making any of those moves, the Packers sat on their hands and did nothing. And of course, failed to reach the Super Bowl.

So you obviously know my feelings on the matter. Yes, one player can absolutely make a difference.

Now, that’s not necessarily true for every team, but there are a handful of teams that are competing for a championship each year, and very often, yes, they are one player away.

And in the context of the wide receiver position, which is where we’re going to focus today, you don’t need to look very far to see examples of premier wide receivers being added to a Super Bowl-ready team and putting them over the top.

Odell Beckham Jr. and A.J. Brown Getting the Rams and Eagles over the Hump

Just go back to 2021 with the LA Rams. Remember midseason they signed Odell Beckham Jr. after he was let go by the Browns?

Gave that passing game a lot of flexibility. That pairing of him with Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford throwing to them, Sean McVay calling the plays…it really was tough to stop down the stretch.

And Beckham was a key contributor in the playoffs. 21 catches, 288 yards, 2 touchdowns in the three and a half games he played. I don’t know if you remember, he tore his ACL in the Super Bowl, but had already scored a touchdown at that point, and many thought he was on his way to winning the Super Bowl MVP before he got hurt:

So he played a huge role in helping the Rams get over the hump.

A year later, you had A.J. Brown being added to the Eagles. They acquired him by a trade during the draft.

Now the Eagles to that point, they were a running football team. In Jalen Hurts’ first year as a starter, the Eagles, well, they couldn’t really throw the ball that well. They were in the bottom-10 in the league, but they were the number one rushing offense in the NFL.

A lot of people look back on the Eagles and they say, oh, Saquon Barkley was the player that put them over the top. But I don’t know if I agree with that. The Eagles have had a good running game with or without Barkley.

I don’t want to diminish what he added to them, but he came to a team that was, what, number one in rushing in 2021, top five in 2022, still top 10 in 2023, had a great offensive line, were running the ball well when Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell were the backs:

No, this offense took off when A.J. Brown was added in 2022, and that passing game went from the bottom of the league to the top 10.

What Brown was able to do schematically fit the Eagles so well. He’s one of the best outside receivers in the game, one of the best at winning one-on-ones and making contested catches, and that was perfect for what the Eagles like to do. It was perfect for Jalen Hurts.

As I’ve discussed multiple times on this podcast, Hurts does not see the field well, doesn’t operate in the middle of the field well, so he wants to throw the ball to the outside.

So having receivers like DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown to both sides, where you can pick and choose when you get one-on-one matchups (and you get a lot of one-on-one matchups because the Eagles run the ball so well), that was transformative to that offense.

Read more

Feel free to read the transcript on it’s own or use it (and the plays I included) to follow along with the podcast to get more context for what I’m talking about.

Subscribe now

In this episode, I discuss the following:

• The Rams are in a near identical situation to the 2020-21 Packers

• What Trent McDuffie adds to the Rams

• The Texans trade for David Montgomery

• Breaking down Jaxson Dart’s rookie season

• What the Giants’ approach should be

Here is a direct link to the podcast, and below that you can find the transcript and plays:

The Football Film Room Show - Episode #22 Transcript

Welcome to the Football Film Room Show. I’m Nick Kehoe, and we’ve got another great episode for you today. The offseason is just starting to kick into high gear. We’re on the dawn of free agency. You’ve already seen a few moves made, re-signings, trades. We’ll get to some of that in this episode.

Also want to dive into Jaxson Dart. Did a lot of analysis on his rookie season. So I want to bring that to you and talk about what I think the Giants need to do to make sure that he continues to grow in years two and beyond.

But it’s all very fast moving in terms of free agency and transactions and so on and so forth. There’s stuff happening even right now as I’m recording. So we obviously won’t be able to get to all of it in this episode. Just know whatever we miss, we will try to cover in next week’s episode.

You can check out footballfilmroom.com. I’ll put content on there as well. We’ll have you covered.

These Rams vs. the 2020-21 Packers

But the first thing I want to start off with today is the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams have a quarterback in Matthew Stafford who just won the MVP in his age-37 season:

Took his team to the NFC Championship game where they came up just short, 31-27, announced he’s coming back…

And just as things stand today, I want you all to really soak this in, really think about this. Are the Rams a Super Bowl contender next year? I think we all agree that they are, right?

And knowing that Matthew Stafford is coming back next season, is there anyone out there who truly thinks that the Rams’ focus this offseason should be on getting a quarterback of the future?

Now, I have nothing against planning for the future, having some sort of contingency plan, but I think everyone would agree that the approach the Rams should be taking this offseason is to knock that damn door down that’s in their way and keeping them from getting to the Super Bowl.

That they should be doing everything in their power to get over the hump because they don’t know how much time they have left with Stafford. They don’t know how long this window is with him. Could only be one more year.

Worry about rebuilding when it’s time to rebuild if you have a team that’s ready to win a Super Bowl right now.

The reason I wanted to present that situation to you and make you all just think deeply about where the Rams are right now and what the logical approach is is because I want to go back to 2020. Very briefly. Won’t spend too much time on this, but the Packers were in a very similar situation.

Now we’ll start with the 2020 offseason. The Packers had just come off of an NFC Championship game loss to the 49ers. They got blown out, but they were knocking on the door. Aaron Rodgers was actually one year younger than Matthew Stafford is right now. Still clearly had it. Physical skills had not diminished:

And I think everyone recognized that, okay, this is one final window for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. They are on the doorstep. They’re not that far away. They need to make a couple moves, and they could be in the big game.

And then, of course, as we all know, they go on the draft Jordan Love.

They use their first round and actually a fourth round pick to trade up to take him. Now, I don’t want to focus on that move so much. I think the Jordan Love draft pick has worked out for Green Bay. So I’m not going to criticize that.

But the Packers didn’t make any moves during the 2020 offseason to try to knock that door down and get to the Super Bowl.

Subscribe now

And then Aaron Rodgers would go on to, of course, have one of the best seasons of his career. Won the MVP during his age 37 season, just like Matthew Stafford did.

Took his team to the NFC Championship game, just like Matthew Stafford did. Played well in that NFC Championship game, but lost 31-26, just like Stafford did, although Stafford lost 31-27.

Both those games, strangely enough, ended with Rodgers and Stafford unable to get their teams into the end zone at the end of the game to either tie the game or take the lead.

It really is freaky how similar these situations are. This is why I always say the NFL is cyclical, why I love talking about history with you.

But the Packers then, coming out of that 2020 season, were in a nearly identical situation to what the Rams are in right now. Rodgers proved he still had it, played at an MVP level. Even though you couldn’t guarantee he was going to be an MVP again in 2021, he clearly still had it, clearly was still playing very high-level football, winning football.

And I know there was some back and forth about Rodgers asking to be traded at that point, but the Packers knew they weren’t going to do that. So they knew they had Rodgers coming back for his age-38 season, just like the Rams do with Matthew Stafford next year.

And yet once again, despite being five points away from the Super Bowl, the Packers did not decide to kick the door in and do everything in their power to get to the Super Bowl when they had been on the verge and they had roughly the same team coming back.

Read more

Now, the last topic I want to talk about is Jaxson Dart. I spent a lot of time over the last few weeks watching every single one of his snaps from this season. I did a full-on 50-plus play analysis, which you can check out here:

But let me just start with this. As you all have probably figured out by now, I love NFL history, love NFL films. Not only did I spend five years working at NFL films, but long before that, I was using my VHS to record the Super Bowl highlight film marathons that were on on the night before and the morning of the Super Bowl when I was a kid.

Subscribe now

And there’s a line of narration from the Super Bowl XIX highlight video that stands out and makes me think of Jaxson Dart.

Now, that Super Bowl was between the 49ers and Dolphins, 1984 season, Joe Montana versus Dan Marino. Marino won the MVP that season, was doing things in just his second year that no one had really ever seen before.

And quite frankly, you go back and look at his numbers, 48 touchdown passes, 5,000 passing yards in a 16-game season in 1984…That’s tough to do today. And he did it back in 1984:

But as you probably know, he would not win the Super Bowl that year. The 49ers would. And Joe Montana not only won the Super Bowl MVP, but he set the record for passing yards in the Super Bowl and rushing yards by a quarterback in the Super Bowl in the same game that afternoon:

And the line of narration that I’m talking about from that highlight video was this:

Read more

Subscribe now

Feel free to read the transcript on it’s own or use it (and the plays I included) to follow along with the podcast to get more context for what I’m talking about.

In this episode, I discuss:

• Rams vs. Seahawks - Sam Darnold delivered

• Patriots vs. Broncos - Just like Karate Kid 3

Here is a direct link to the podcast, and below that you can find the transcript and plays:

The Football Film Room Show - Episode #18 Transcript

Welcome to the Football Film Room Show. I’m Nick Kehoe. We’ve got another great episode for you today.

We’re going to break down all the action from Conference Championship Sunday. We finally know who will be playing in Super Bowl LX…the Patriots and Seahawks. Some people happy about that. A lot of people probably not. We’ll get to all that.

But both games were…they were different games, but they were entertaining because they were close. The outcome was in doubt until the end, and that’s kind of all you can ask for in a conference championship game.

Rams vs. Seahawks

Now, the story of the weekend was, without a doubt, Sam Darnold. He answered all the critics, all the people saying that he couldn’t get it done in a big spot, including myself.

And I didn’t necessarily think he couldn’t get it done. I just hadn’t seen him get it done yet in a big spot, and so I wasn’t going to be a betting man and say, “Oh, yes, Sam Darnold, I can absolutely count on him.”

But he absolutely delivered. 25-of-36, 346 yards, three touchdowns, and most importantly, no turnovers.

Because that was the question coming into this game. Which Sam Darnold was going to show up? The one that had played the Rams twice this year had six interceptions.

Many of which, as I wrote about last week, were the result of disguise. Him not recognizing what the Rams were doing. The Rams doing a good job of either completely masking their coverage or slow playing their coverage after the snap:

In this game, though, he was outstanding. And there were really three things that he did especially well.

One, he put the ball wherever he wanted to. Two, he processed quickly. Any of those disguises, any of those different looks that the Rams were giving him, he had no problems with. And then three, he threw the ball well in the face of pressure.

When there were bodies around him, he did a great job of sliding to find the soft spot in the pocket to throw from:

There was one play where his tackle’s feet got pushed back in the pocket pretty much to the spot where Darnold wanted to throw from, and ho-hum wasn’t a big deal. He just slid his feet to the left, threw back to the right, accurate pass, completion:

Read more

All right, let’s move on and talk about the AFC Championship Game.

Before we do that, do any of you remember Karate Kid 3? Great movie from the 80’s. Some phenomenal characters in there:

Some really interesting story-lines as well. One of those story-lines was that the main character, Daniel LaRusso, wax on, wax off, he was competing in this karate tournament, the All Valley Karate Tournament. And for reasons that no one can logically explain away, in Karate Kid 3, he didn’t have to compete in the entire tournament! He just got a free pass to the finals:

Truly unprecedented.

The reason I bring that up is because, does that sound familiar to any of you? Is there an AFC football team that kind of got a free pass to the finals? A free pass to the Super Bowl?

What? Don’t look at me like that, Patriots fans! I know you’re looking at me like that. We can make jokes. We can have a good time with this.

Subscribe now

Okay, I’m sorry. I take back everything I just said. The Patriots had one of the rougher roads to the Super Bowl that you will ever see. Really difficult regular season schedule.

Had to get through all the champions of the past during the postseason.

The NFL Gods just put one obstacle in their way after another, after another, after another, and they just overcame.

Really inspirational team. There were like 100 different moments in the regular season in the playoffs where you just said, this team, it’s done. All the odds are stacked against them. They’re not going to be able to do it.

There. Is that better?

All right. Now that that’s out of the way, we can really talk about the AFC Championship Game. And this was a game that the Patriots won because of, well, you can probably guess if you’ve listened to this podcast before, situational football.

I know. You’re tired of hearing it. I’m tired of talking about it, but it’s the same thing every week. It’s the same thing every year. The playoffs are about playing to situations, managing the game.

Read more

12 Super Bowl appearances. 8 Super Bowl rings. Both of which are the most by any human in any role in football history…Apparently, that still wasn’t enough to impress some of the voters.

More likely, there were several thin-skinned members of the media who held a grudge for personal reasons or because he hurt their feelings at some point or another. My 6-year-old does the same thing, so I get it. Big feelings can be hard to deal with.

Subscribe now

It sounds like “Spygate” and “Deflategate” weighed heavily on the minds of some of those voters. Although, if he’s going to be punished for those, I’d have to imagine Tom Brady would be too when he’s up for the Hall of Fame in a few years. Deflategate was his scandal, after all, and he would have been the main beneficiary of any Spygate sign-stealing since they were allegedly stealing defensive signals (I think you’d also have to remove quite a few other first-ballot coaches and players from the Hall of Fame if going by this standard).

That said, Belichick won 3 Super Bowls and went to 6 after Spygate (He also played a critical role in the Giants’ 2 Super Bowl wins in 1986 and 1990, where there are no allegations of cheating). On those accomplishments alone, he’s a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer.

Either way, it’s an utter disgrace that he didn’t get in on his first try (and wasn’t unanimous). And it’s an embarrassing moment for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Because the final assessment of Belichick’s career is that he’s the best head coach/GM ever to do it (and his career as a defensive coordinator is somewhere near the top as well). There’s really not much of an argument otherwise.

We can argue about the greatest individual players at their respective positions. One player might have the best individual stats but not quite as many team accomplishments. For those that do, it’s tough to precisely assign credit to wins and championships (or lack thereof) since each plays on a different team, with different players, different schemes, and different coaches. So whatever the consensus might be for each position, there is room for discussion:

“What if quarterback X played with that team?”

“What if running back Y played behind that offensive line?”

But for a coach or GM (or someone who’s a combination of the two), there is only one thing they’re responsible for - winning championships. It doesn’t matter how they do it. There is no “yeah but.” It is simply “how much did they win?”

In that department, no one has been better than Belichick. If that’s not good enough to be a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, then nothing is.

Subscribe now

If you’re interested in some facts and a reminder about why Belichick was the #1 reason for the Patriots’ dynasty (despite all the revisionist history of the last 5 years), keep reading below. I posted this a couple of years ago, but today seems like a great time to re-share.

The Best Two-Decade Run in NFL History

Belichick won 6 Super Bowls with the Patriots as the architect and orchestrator of the team. He presided over the greatest 19-year stretch in NFL history. Here’s what New England accomplished during that time:

• 6 Super Bowl wins

• 9 Super Bowl appearances

• Regular Season W-L: 232-72 (Best in NFL)

• Playoff W-L: 30-11 (Best in NFL)

• 17 division titles

• 13 AFC Championship Game appearances (8 consecutive from 2011-18)

• Most points scored

• Fewest points allowed

• Fewest turnovers

• Most takeaways

• 3rd in return TDs (Kick, Punt, INT, Fumble-Return, Other)

Belichick won with defense-first teams. He won with explosive offensive teams. He won with special teams. He navigated the salary cap expertly. And for most of his career, he was two steps ahead of the league, whether it was via his scheme or personnel decisions.

Opponent-Specific Approaches

Perhaps the most impressive thing about Belichick was his ability to use completely different gameplans and approaches from week-to-week based on the opponent. He found unique ways to make teams play left-handed.

A few unconventional gameplans and strategic approaches come to mind:

• Having edge rushers hit Marshall Faulk on almost every pass play before rushing the quarterback in order to disrupt the “Greatest Show on Turf” in Super Bowl XXXVI.

• Taking away the Colts’ outside zone stretch play with the alignment of outside linebackers Willie McGinest and Mike Vrabel. That also shut down their play-action off of it, which was a bread-and-butter play for those Peyton-Manning-led teams in the 2000’s.

• “Cover-1 double jersey #” coverage and taking away receivers like Tyreek Hill by double-teaming them with his #2 corner and a safety and then using his best corner to shut down the offense’s #2 receiver.

• The way he would match up personnel based on skill-sets instead of status. For instance, he used Kyle Arrington instead of Darrelle Revis to take away the Colts’ best receiver (T.Y. Hilton) twice during the 2014 season, including the AFC Championship Game. Arrington was then benched midway through Super Bowl XLIX vs. Seattle and replaced with Malcolm Butler…

• Holding Sean McVay’s Rams offense to 3 points in Super Bowl LIII using a combination of a 6-1 front to stop their zone runs and having cornerback Jonathan Jones play as a deep safety (often out of quarters coverage) to be able to better match up to L.A.’s intermediate-to-deep route combinations.

What’s so impressive about the examples above is that he didn’t just come up with the idea to utilize these unique approaches. He had to coach them as well. His coaches had to understand them. His players had to understand them and be able to apply them on the field.

There are plenty of other approaches and in-game decisions we could talk about as well. Like his decision not to call a timeout at the end of Super Bowl XLIX when the Seahawks were about to score the game-winning touchdown and had the ball at the 1-yard line. Belichick saw chaos on the opposite sideline. He didn’t want to bail them out. On the very next play, Malcolm Butler picked off Russell Wilson, and the rest is history.

Belichick also wasn’t reliant on one or two great defenders during his 24 years in New England. He didn’t have an all-timer on defense at any position. He didn’t have a Ray Lewis or Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu. In fact, to date, the Patriots have only had 4 Hall-of-Famers from Belichick’s Patriots defenses. And most weren’t on the team for long during his tenure:

• Ty Law (5 seasons, 69 regular season games)

• Richard Seymour (8 seasons, 111 regular season games)

• Junior Seau (4 seasons, 38 regular season games)

• Darrelle Revis (1 season, 16 regular season games)

Despite the lack of stars, his defense allowed the fewest points in the NFL from 2001-19. During that stretch, they finished in the top-10 in points allowed 16 times, which included 8 top-5 finishes and three seasons as the top scoring D in the league.

Building and Re-Building the Patriots

The way he continually re-shaped the team, particularly on offense, in order to stay ahead of the league played as big of a role in the Patriots’ success as anything.

The Patriots went from a defense-first team with great special teams and timely offense during their first 3 Super Bowl wins from 2001-04, to a team that attacked with one of the best passing games in the league after the NFL put an emphasis on calling illegal contact and basically outlawed defense in 2004.

Belichick traded for Randy Moss when everyone thought he was done. Of course, he set an NFL record for TD receptions in his first season with the Patriots.

But it wasn’t just 2007 with Moss. Belichick also spotted something in Wes Welker (when no one else did) and engineered the passing game around him and his unique abilities in the slot. He spotted the same thing in Julian Edelman despite the fact that he was a quarterback in college.

The passing game morphed into one based primarily on matchups in the 2010’s - with tight ends like Rob Gronkowski and running backs like Shane Vereen, Dion Lewis, and James White, etc. who could align on the perimeter and either become mismatches or help define the coverage. He zigged when the league zagged, and that helped lead to the Patriots’ sustained success.

Tom Brady

One of Belichick’s greatest accomplishments as a coach, which he doesn’t get any credit for, was his development of the player that many consider to be the greatest quarterback and football player in NFL history - Tom Brady.

For some reason, Brady is always listed as a negative on Belichick’s resume. Many try to make him wear Brady’s career like an albatross around his neck. As if this was a situation where Brady and Belichick never talked. Brady took the offense, Belichick took the defense, and they met at the field on Sunday. And then Belichick wasn’t that great, he was just carried by Brady.

That, of course, is a completely ridiculous assumption.

First, it’s built on the premise that Belichick just inherited a Hall-of-Fame quarterback and went along for the ride to 6 Super Bowl titles.

Second, it assumes Belichick wasn’t involved in Brady’s development.

Third, it implies that Belichick had nothing to do with Brady becoming the team’s starting quarterback in the first place - as if the answer was so clear early in his career and there was no major decision to make.

Each of these are demonstrably untrue.

Brady Wasn’t a Great Quarterback Right Away

All you have to do is go back to those 2001-04 seasons to disprove the idea that Brady arrived in Foxborough with his Superman cape and led New England to victory after victory.

He didn’t “cover up for Belichick’s mistakes” as some have suggested. It was actually more the other way around. Those were defense-first teams with great special teams, and both helped cover up many of the offense’s blemishes.

The Patriots ranked 6th in points allowed in 2001, 1st in 2003, and 2nd in 2004. They didn’t just prevent other teams from scoring, though.

In fact, during those 3 Super Bowl winning seasons, the defense and special teams combined to score 24 touchdowns and 172 points of their own (not including field goals). Those aren’t typos. 24 touchdowns and 172 points…More than any other team in the NFL during that time.

That might explain why the Patriots were able to win regardless of how the offense performed. For instance:

• The Patriots offense failed to score 14 points in 11 of the 55 games Tom Brady started in 2001, 2003, and 2004 (including the playoffs). They still went 8-3 in those games.

• The offense failed to score 20 points in 20 of those 55 games. They still went 16-4.

For context, Peyton Manning’s offenses only failed to score 20 points in 11 of 53 games during those seasons (20.8%). The Colts went 2-9 in those games.

The Patriots’ results were similar when you look at Brady’s individual performance as well:

• Brady completed less than 60% of his passes in 22 of his 55 games during those Super Bowl winning seasons. The Patriots still went 19-3.

• He threw for less than 200 yards 18 times. The Patriots still went 14-4.

• He failed to throw a touchdown 14 times. Again, it didn’t matter. The Patriots still went 12-2.

• In nearly half of those games (27 of 55), Brady threw as many or more interceptions than touchdowns. The Patriots still went 20-7 in those games.

If we focus on those postseasons, we’ll see much of the same thing.

2001 Playoffs

New England’s first title run with Brady at the helm is the best example of how it was Belichick’s program that was the driving force behind the Patriots’ success, not any individual player.

If you look at Brady’s final 8 games of that season, including the playoffs, he threw 3 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. That’s a pace of 6 touchdowns and 12 interceptions across a full NFL season. That’s not a typo. You know what the Patriots record was in those final 8 games? 8-0.

Brady also didn’t even play most of the AFC Championship game after getting knocked out in the 2nd quarter. New England still beat the #1-seed Steelers on the road.

For the 10 quarters that Brady was on the field that postseason, the offense scored just 29 points (an average of 11.6 points per game). Not to mention, the defense and special teams combined to score more touchdowns (3) during that postseason than the Brady-led offense did (2).

In Super Bowl XXXVI, the Patriots won despite scoring just 13 offensive points. That was the lowest total ever for a winning team in Super Bowl history. It’s only been tied once since then…by the 2018 Patriots (surprise, surprise).

Dominating the MVP’s

If you want to know how good Belichick’s defenses really were from 2001-04, you can just look at how easily they handled the league’s best signal callers.

4 of their 9 playoff games during that run were against quarterbacks who had won the MVP that season. These games were all won by the Patriots, and it wasn’t because Brady out-dueled those QBs in a shootout. Quite the opposite in fact.

Here’s a list of the game logs from those 4 matchups:

Read more

Subscribe now

Feel free to read the transcript on it’s own or use it (and the plays I included) to follow along with the podcast to get more context for what I’m talking about.

In this episode, I discuss:

• Bills vs. Broncos - It happened again

• 49ers vs. Seahawks - The Seahawks left no doubt

• Texans vs. Patriots - C.J. Stroud gave the game away

• Bears vs. Rams - Another thrilling ending

Here is a direct link to the podcast, and below that you can find the transcript and plays:

The Football Film Room Show - Episode #17 Transcript

Welcome to the Football Film Room Show. I’m Nick Kehoe, and we’ve got another great episode for you today.

We’re going to go through all the action from the Divisional Round.

Bills vs. Broncos

I’ll be honest, we’re going to spend the most amount of time on that Bills-Broncos game because while the divisional round is always very consequential, it was even more so for the Bills.

Not only did their season come to a heartbreaking end again, but Sean McDermott was fired less than 48 hours after the game. Now, we’ll get into that decision. We’ll get into why that decision probably had to be made.

But first, I want to talk about Josh Allen and the commentary around him coming out of this game. Because I watched the live broadcast. Then I watched the All-22 the next day. And what I saw just, I don’t know, it just did not match up with what I was hearing on NFL analysis shows and Twitter, of course.

Because I think Allen played a pretty damn good game.

You’re probably not hearing that in many places, but he made a ton of plays, a ton of throws. He ended up with roughly 350 total yards, three touchdowns, had several big-time throws, big-time decisions.

There was a third down where he threw the ball with such great anticipation. His receiver turned around, and the ball was pretty much in his face, had no choice but to catch it:

He had one play to Shakir [actually it was Keon Coleman] where he threw smoke and ended up being a touchdown. That’s where it’s basically a designed run play, and the quarterback has the ability to throw the ball to the backside if he likes the matchup:

Allen did a great job there of recognizing what was going on, standing up quickly and throwing a quick slant to Shakir Coleman.

Had another RPO where, again, he made a quick snap decision right after the snap, hit Shakir for 40-plus yards:

Had a big run with his legs…

Made a bunch of plays…

And at the end of the day, when you score 30 points, your team should win. When you score 30 points and lose, that game is not on the offense. When you score 13 points in the fourth quarter, including a go-ahead touchdown drive and then a last-second game-tying field goal drive, it’s really tough to put that game on the quarterback.

Now, were there throws and plays that Josh Allen would like back? Of course. Of course. He ended up with four turnovers. I thought two of them were on him.

The play before the end of the half where he was running around completely reckless with the ball…it looked like on the broadcast he was trying to lateral it, but then if you watched it on film, it almost looked like he was glancing towards the sideline to see if he could get out of bounds to stop the clock, and then he got hit and his hand got knocked backwards:

So it almost looked like he was shoveling it backwards. And maybe he was. Either way, way too reckless with the ball in that situation. That gave Denver three points.

The other turnover that was on him was the interception in the third quarter where he threw the ball deep and just didn’t get enough on it:

But the other two turnovers, one was a sack-fumble where he basically planted his back foot and got hit right as he was throwing it. And then the interception, the last play that everyone’s talking about, those two really weren’t on him.

On the sack, he was setting the protection at the line. He saw the blitz. He had James Cook go up and hang out right behind the center in the right A-gap so they could pick up the pressure look that Denver was showing them. There were 1-on-1’s across the board.

To the left, they had Nick Bonito, and Shakir was kind of right off of the left tackle, ran a little bit of interference on Bonito. And then Dion Dawkins just still couldn’t even get to him. Didn’t even get a hand on Bonito, and he basically had a free rush in on Allen when, on paper, it was supposed to be picked up:

The final play, the throw to Brandin Cooks, I mean, that was an outstanding throw. Threw it, what, 40, 50 yards downfield?

The ball hit Brandin Cooks in the right shoulder pad, and people are still arguing over whether or not it was a catch:

Now, I’m not going to get into that. I’m not going to open up that can of worms of what’s a catch, what’s not a catch. Whether he had possession of the ball and two feet on the ground and was being touched down or whether he didn’t survive the ground, whatever it is…

The point I’m making here is that for the second straight year, the Bills’ season ended with Josh Allen’s last pass hitting his receiver in the shoulder pads or the hands and that receiver not coming down with it:

Now, of course, there were other throws that Allen missed. I think right before they kicked the game-tying field goal, he had Dawson Knox for a touchdown. Threw the ball a little bit high, just missed him. I think it was because of the pressure that that happened, but of course that’s one he wants back:

Read more

All right, we can move on to the rest of these games, and we’ll do this a little bit more round-robin style, just some quick thoughts on each of the games.

49ers-Seahawks…the Seahawks won in every single phase. They took what they did a couple weeks ago in Week 18 and just doubled down, just kicked the ever-loving you-know-what out of the 49ers.

Subscribe now

On the defensive side of the ball, they were able to pressure Brock Purdy a ton in that Week 18 game. They upped that significantly on Saturday night. They pressured Purdy on 60% of his dropbacks, and they really did it with their front four:

They blitzed on just 4 of 33 dropbacks and continued to play that coverage the way they’ve been playing it: keep everything in front of them, move after the snap, and they completely shut down the 49ers. Forced three turnovers, and that really was the story of the weekend, I think, in every single game.

Broncos won the turnover battle 5-1. Seahawks won the turnover battle 3-0. Patriots won the turnover battle 5-3. And then the Rams won the turnover battle 3-0 as well.

On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks didn’t have to do much through the air, which was probably good because Sam Darnold’s oblique. But really they were able to do anything they wanted to in the run game, just like they did in Week 18.

In particular, they attacked the edge of the 49ers’ defense. They were able to run the ball 21 times for 130 yards outside the tackles. And that was an issue that the 49ers have had for a while. And the Seahawks exploited it in Week 18 and exploited it again on Saturday night:

Read more

Feel free to read the transcript on it’s own or use it (and the plays I included) to follow along with the podcast to get more context for what I’m talking about.

Subscribe now

In this episode, I discuss:

• Rams vs. Panthers - MVP Stafford showed up in the 4th quarter

• Packers vs. Bears - Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams took advantage of their own tendencies

• Bills vs. Jaguars - Josh Allen saw everything the Jaguars were doing

• 49ers vs. Eagles - Passing games and quarterbacks were the difference

• Chargers vs. Patriots - A dominating defensive performance

• Texans vs. Steelers - An even more dominating defensive performance

Here is a direct link to the podcast, and below that you can find the transcript and plays:

The Football Film Room Show - Episode #16 Transcript

Welcome to the Football Film Room Show. I’m Nick Kehoe, and we’ve got another great episode for you today.

We’re just going to dive right into the games because this was one of the best, if not the best, wildcard playoff weekends that we’ve ever had with the NFL.

The outcome was in doubt in most of these games until the very end. I think the first three games, whoever was winning at the two-minute warning in the fourth quarter ended up losing the game.

It was just an unbelievable weekend. A lot of great performances, some surprises in there, obviously some collapses, but we’re going to get to all of it. And we’re just going to go in chronological order.

Rams vs. Panthers

We’ll start with that Rams-Panthers game. And I gotta say, the Panthers…I don’t think anyone thought that that was going to happen. I don’t think anyone thought that they were going to be able to keep it close, let alone be on the verge of winning that game with less than two minutes to go. But they gave the Rams a run for their money.

Now, if you’re a Rams fan, there are two ways to look at this game, right? One way is to say, okay, this was a game where we had everything to lose. Playing an 8-9 team, you have to win that game. It would be so embarrassing to lose that game. And they just got through it. Now they can put that aside. They’ve got a playoff win under their belt, and now they can go on their run that a lot of people are expecting them to go on.

Another way to look at it is that they ended the season, the last quarter of the season probably, in a bit of a funk. They weren’t playing sharp football. Their defense was not what it was early in the season.

The offense, even though it played well, it certainly had its spurts of sloppiness and lack of discipline. A few too many turnovers and mistakes.

And you just sort of figured that every team goes through a lull at some point in the season. And you kind of expected them to put that behind them once they got to the playoffs.

But on Saturday in Carolina, they really didn’t.

They had a bad offsides penalty on a third and five in the second half, giving Carolina an automatic first down. They obviously had the blocked punt when they were nursing a three-point lead in the middle of the fourth quarter.

And then offensively, they had another hold on a run play when they were trying to put the game away:

And this is exactly what happened in Seattle. Remember, I talked about this a few weeks ago in Seattle. They obviously had the bad decision to punt the ball to the middle of the field to a dangerous punt returner when they had the 30-14 lead.

And then after the game was tied at 30 and they were driving for the game-winning field goal, they got a holding penalty on a run play. Which, again, just drives me nuts. The risk-reward…it’s not worth it to hold on a run play.

And everyone, especially in key situations, every offensive lineman should know, if you get beat, you get beat. Do not hold. Do not put yourselves back 10 yards. But they did it in that game, and it pushed them back 10 yards. They ended up having to attempt a longer field goal, and the kicker missed by just a little bit.

And that was one of the things that cost them that game, cost them the division, cost them a chance at the number one seed and the ability to rest and get healthy and not have to go on the road for every single playoff game.

And then they did it again against Carolina. They were up 27-24, picked up a big first down. You wanted this to be sort of a four-minute offense situation if you’re the Rams, and then what did they do? They held on a run play, set themselves back to a first and 20, and all of a sudden they were behind the chains, couldn’t get a first down, had to punt the ball away, and that’s, of course, the punt that got blocked.

Now, aside from the situational stuff, aside from the special teams, the defense continued to play the way they did at the end of the year. The pass rush is just not quite what it was earlier in the year, and that’s a big problem because their secondary, that’s their weak spot. Those cornerbacks, those are their Achilles heels, so to speak, and they could not get a good enough pass rush against Bryce Young and the Panthers, and Young was able to do whatever they wanted to in the passing game in the second half:

I mean, whenever they wanted it, they could get a big play. It was a very unimpressive game from the Rams’ defense and one that makes you say, what are they going to do against Caleb Williams, Ben Johnson, and the Bears? If they can’t get a pass rush, it’s going to be a difficult game up in Chicago.

Now, the only reason that the Rams even get to go to Chicago is because Matthew Stafford, MVP Matthew Stafford, did what he’s done all season and pretty much throughout his career. And that is come through with the game on the line.

I think this was his 54th career game-winning drive. But in the fourth quarter, he was lights out. 12 of 15, 143 yards, two touchdowns, two go-ahead touchdown drives.

Subscribe now

And we’ll get to those in a second because this game can really be broken into thirds. You had the first part of the game, the first third of the game, where Stafford, the Rams, the offense, they came out of the locker room ready to go.

They were methodical. They did everything that we all thought they were going to do, right? They were going to come to Carolina, take care of business. This wasn’t going to be a repeat of what happened in week 13 when they lost. And they did. They scored on their first drive, took a 14-0 lead, and looked like they were in total control.

Now, the Rams clearly had the game plan to attack Carolina’s linebackers and safeties in the middle of the field. All three of Stafford’s touchdowns in the afternoon came against linebackers or safeties.

Their first one to Puka Nacua had Nacua lined up in the backfield. He was actually to the one-receiver side of a three-by-one. And what that did was it made the defense skew more towards the three-receiver side. And with Nacua running his route out of the backfield, not only did he get a free release, but he got matched up on a safety in space, and Stafford looked left to hold the coverage to the three-receiver side to keep any possible help defenders away from Nacua. And so you ended up with a huge mismatch of Nakua on a safety. He beat his man, had a ton of room. Stafford laid the ball in there, and the Rams were on the board:

Their second touchdown came on an option route to Kyren Williams out of the backfield, ended up running that against a linebacker. Again, another mismatch:

And then, of course, the game-winning touchdown came to Colby Parkinson, a tight end, running a wheel route where he ended up getting matched up on a safety. It was decent coverage, but one of the advantages of attacking safeties and linebackers is that they don’t have the ball skills of cornerbacks, receivers, tight ends. And so Parkinson was able to make a great catch, and of course the throw from Stafford was absolutely perfect:

Read more

Feel free to read the transcript on it’s own or use it (and the plays I included) to follow along with the podcast to get more context for what I’m talking about.

Subscribe now

In this episode, I discuss:

• Some of the all-time great quarterbacks (and their prickly exchanges with teammates and coaches)

• Aaron Rodgers as a field general

• How the Steelers Offense did things they hadn’t all season vs. the Ravens

• Analysis of the Ravens’ big plays on offense

• John Harbaugh’s future (prior to his firing)

• The Seahawks defense

• The Sam Darnold variable

Here is a direct link to the podcast, and below that you can find the transcript and plays:

The Football Film Room Show - Episode #15 Transcript

Welcome to the Football Film Room Show. I’m Nick Kehoe. We’ve got another great episode for you today.

We’re going to get into that Ravens-Steelers game. Just an absolutely phenomenal way to end the NFL regular season. Crazy finish to that game. Four lead changes in the fourth quarter alone. Two missed kicks in the final minute. Unbelievable finish. Some unbelievable performances.

We’re going to talk about the 49ers and Seahawks. The ramifications from that game.

But before we do any of that, I want you to think back to some of the all-time great quarterbacks in NFL history.

All-Time Field Generals

Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Joe Montana, Terry Bradshaw, Johnny Unitas, Elway, Marino, Brett Favre.

Every single one of those quarterbacks had something in common.

Now they all played differently. They all won with different tools. Some had great arms, powerful arms. Some were more accurate than others. Some won with their coverage recognition, their ability to understand and dissect what a defense is doing. Some used their legs.

But every single one of them was in charge. Every single one of them was, for lack of a better term, a field general when playing the position.

Now that’s an overused term, but it really does apply. The all-time great quarterbacks... They’re in charge. When they’re out on the field, it’s their huddle. Whether they’re calling the plays or they have the ability to change the play at the line of scrimmage, it’s on them.

And contrary to what you’ve been told by Hollywood, the quarterback is not everybody’s best friend…nice to everybody. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Most of the great quarterbacks have a lot of MF-er in them. Rhymes with brother-tucker.

In fact, Dan Fouts, another all-time great, Chargers quarterback, he used to wear a hat around the facility that said MFIC. Stands for MF-er in charge.

And you can look back through a lot of the old NFL films footage, see wires of some of these quarterbacks, see what types of personalities they had, how they carried themselves on the sideline. These guys were not afraid to get into each other’s faces, to yell at another player to hold them accountable.

The most famous clip is probably Peyton Manning. Back in the 2005 season, he was wired. Got into a shouting match with his center, Jeff Saturday, who was like his best friend. Came over to the sideline. I think he heard that Saturday was complaining that they weren’t running the ball enough in the red zone.

It’s a great clip. You can just see Peyton Manning. He’s sitting on one bench. He’s listening in to Jeff Saturday, who’s sitting on another bench, talking to his other offensive linemen, saying, we need to run the ball. He’s just seething. Finally, he gets up and gets in Saturday’s face, says, hey, quit calling the plays! I’ll call the plays! I call a run play, you block! I call a pass play, you block!

And then another offensive lineman has to get in his way. It was during a game when the Colts, I think, blew out another team, and they were still at each other’s throats because they demanded perfection.

Shoot, Tom Brady. You’ve seen Tom Brady get into it on the sideline with his coaches. Bill O’Brien back in 2011, they got into a huge shouting match. Josh McDaniels several years later.

Johnny Unitas is another great example. There was a game back in 1970, the year the Baltimore Colts actually won the Super Bowl, where head coach Don McCafferty told Unitas in a specific situation, hey, whatever you do, do not throw the ball.

And what did Unitas do? He called a pass play, threw it, and the Colts scored a touchdown:

Go back and watch that 1970 America’s Game because Ernie Accorsi tells that story. He was there with the team then when Unitas was there. Talks about how that was just John.

What he meant by that was Unitas was going to do what he was going to do because he was in charge.

Aaron Rodgers is Cut from the Same Cloth

Aaron Rodgers is that type of quarterback. He’s one of the few who still remains and plays that way. But he’s in command at the line of scrimmage.

You saw a couple weeks ago the NFL Films clip of him telling Kenny Gainwell in the middle of a play, hey, motion all the way out to the sideline and run a go route. And it happened to be the play where Gainwell made this miraculous catch and went into the end zone for a touchdown:

But Rodgers is constantly... constantly working with, and it seems like yelling at all the time, his teammates. And he’s not doing it to be a jerk. He’s not yelling at them because he’s blaming them for anything.

It’s because he holds himself to a high standard. And for him to play well, he needs other players to meet that standard. You don’t always get there by being nice to everybody in the heat of the moment.

But he cares about the details. He needs everyone else to be as detail-oriented as he is. And he probably gets frustrated because he’s in his 21st year. He sees the game so much quicker than everyone else does. He’s seen every defense there is, and other players don’t quite see it the way he does.

So I’m sure that frustration comes out, but it’s critical to the way he plays.

And that’s why you see him kind of having different favorite receivers that...you wouldn’t think would be his favorite. That’s why Allen Lazard had such a good connection with him, both in Green Bay and with the Jets, why he targeted him. Because he clearly trusted that Lazard would be where he needed to be at the time that Rodgers needed him to be there:

That’s why he wanted Randall Cobb to come back to Green Bay after he had left the team several years earlier. That’s why he wanted to bring Randall Cobb to the Jets, so he could have a receiver who would be where Rodgers knew he was going to be when he needed him to be there. Same as Lazard.

And it’s probably why he and Garrett Wilson were never able to have that great connection. Because Garrett Wilson, by his own admission, by the admission of everyone around the Jets, is a little bit more of a freelance route runner. He doesn’t just take three steps and cut all the time. Sometimes he’ll take an extra step to get open:

And if Rodgers happens to be looking his way and he hasn’t come out of his break when he expects him to, he looks off. And you do that enough, eventually he’s going to stop looking your way. That’s just the bottom line.

Subscribe now

Why the Steelers Passing Game Finally Looked Good

But after the game on Sunday night, Rodgers spoke a little bit about how some of the things that they’ve just been talking about all year and been waiting to get to, things they’ve been discussing since they were in training camp in Latrobe, how they finally kind of came to fruition in the game last night.

They came in some critical moments, too. And to me, this was really why the Steelers were able to pull this one out against the Ravens on Sunday night, because they were able to do things that they really hadn’t been doing well all season. I don’t know if you’d say it finally clicked, but they finally executed.

They attacked the middle of the field. They had to do that. They didn’t have DK Metcalf, but they attacked the middle of the field and they had success:

Rodgers attacked downfield. He wasn’t just looking to get rid of the ball quickly all the time.

The biggest thing the Steelers did was convert on third and long. Entering Sunday, their offense was 26th in the NFL on third and long. That’s third and seven yards or more. They converted just 20% of the time.

You know what they did against the Ravens? They converted on 6 of 9 third and long attempts, including 4 of 5 in the second half. And arguably the three biggest plays of the game for the Steelers offense came on these third and long plays.

And these were the plays where, as Rodgers said, the details they’ve been working on all season, everyone was finally on top of them.

There was a third and ten at the start of the second half. This was the Steelers’ first possession out of the locker room. They trailed 10-3, and they just come off a real downer of a moment at the end of the first half where they finally seemed to be moving the ball well. They got down to the goal line, and on the final play of the half, it wasn’t a great play call. I liked the decision to go for it, but it wasn’t a great play call. They got stopped at the goal line, came away with no points, and they could have just folded.

And if they had to punt the ball on that first drive, give it back to Baltimore, may have been a big momentum swing. But instead, on this 3rd-and-10, as Rodgers described it, the Ravens brought a strong dog with the middle linebacker and the slot corner, Marlon Humphrey, blitzing.

And he wanted Freiermuth to run a vertical on this play. Freiermuth was to the right, to the side of the blitz. And he spotted the blitz. He recognized it. He ran vertical like Rodgers wanted him to. And he widened his route like Rodgers wanted him to to give him more room from the closing defender coming from the other side of the field:

I wrote about this on FootballFilmRoom.com using Rodgers’ words to diagram the plays.

But that led to a big first down. And the Steelers, they stayed on the field. They kept the momentum of their offense going. The passing game really got going at that point. And then a few plays later, they were in the end zone, tied the score at 10, brand new ball game.

The next big play to Freiermuth came with about six minutes left. The Steelers trailing 17-13, needed a touchdown. This was a 3rd-and-8 inside the Ravens’ 40. And according to Rodgers, it was another example of Freiermuth doing something they had been talking about. He would end up running a stick nod. A route where he’s lined up close to the formation. He runs up, acts like he’s going to break to the outside, run a little seven-yard out route or so, gets his defender to bite, and then cuts it upfield:

But Rodgers talked about how this was a route that when he sees the coverage the way that the Ravens were playing it, be patient with the route. And Freiermuth was, got his defender to bite. Rodgers delivered an absolute seed to him.

And it was a play where if you go back and look at it, Rodgers was getting rid of the ball before Freiermuth was out of his break. And again, after the fact, after when you look at it in the broadcast, it looks like it’s wide open. But the play’s not there or Rodgers isn’t hitting Freiermuth in the exact same way if he doesn’t run that route exactly as he’s expecting him to. Because again, he got rid of the ball before Freiermuth was out of his break.

And then the final big play, what ended up being the game-winning touchdown, came with about a minute left. Again, it was another third down, third and long, 3rd-and-10 this time. Steelers needed a touchdown. Were down 24-20. And this was another one of those plays where Rodgers kind of drew it up in the huddle. Had Calvin Austin run a hitch and go to the backside of a three-by-one formation.

And that’s, again, that’s kind of the way that Rodgers plays. He wants to have his three-man concept to one side. He wants to have his 1-on-1 to the other side. In general, he wants to be able to find 1-on-1’s.

And if he has one, he knows he’s got the accuracy and the ability to put the ball wherever he wants to, but needs his receivers to be on the same page.

Calvin Austin ran a great hitch and go. His defender slipped in response to it. Ended up being the gimme touchdown because it was such a good route and because the defender slipped:

But this was another example of Rodgers just being in control, drawing up the backside of a play in the huddle. And that was the game-winning touchdown. And at the end of the day, this is why the Steelers won.

I went into this game thinking the Steelers had no shot because what they needed to do to win, they hadn’t been able to all season.

They could win those one-on-ones on the outside when D.K. Metcalf was in the lineup, but they couldn’t do it consistently without him. They couldn’t attack the middle of the field. Aaron Rodgers couldn’t get time in the pocket and hold on to the ball and look to work the middle of the field and look to push the ball downfield. And that’s one reason why they’ve been so bad on third and long this year.

But in this game, they were able to do all those things. They were able to do things in game 17 that they hadn’t done all season. And that, from an offensive perspective, really ended up being the difference in the game.

Subscribe now

How the Ravens Passing Game Generated Big Plays

Now, I do want to talk about the other side of the ball just a little bit. The big plays that the Ravens created in the passing game, it was a combination of blown coverages by the Steelers and some great design by Todd Monken and the Ravens.

The first one to me was just a terrible play call, terrible play design from the defensive side of the ball. This was a fourth and short. I believe it was a 4th-and-3 from a 38-yard line. And the Steelers ended up actually going cover-0 there.

But they blitzed 6, and the Ravens had 6 guys in to protect. So you’re kind of putting your secondary in a tough position there. The point of the cover-0 blitz, especially in the middle of the field, is that you’re going to be able to bring one more than the offense can protect.

Read more

With that in mind, I posted the transcript of the most recent episode below and included clips of the plays I was talking about.

Subscribe now

Feel free to read the transcript on it’s own or use it (and the plays I included) to follow along with the podcast and understand just what the hell I’m talking about.

In this episode, I discuss:

• The 2007 Giants

• Trevor Lawrence’s career

• The Texans’ Week 17 win over the Chargers

• The Chargers offense

• Kyle Shanahan’s scheme

• The Steelers’ loss to the Browns

• The Ravens run game

Here is a direct link to the podcast, and below that you can find the transcript and plays:

The Football Film Room Show - Episode #14 Transcript

Welcome to the Football Film Room Show. I’m Nick Kehoe. Got another great episode for you today. We’re going to talk about the Week 17 action:

• Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars, he’s been playing exceptionally good football in the last five weeks.

• We’ll talk about the Texans winning their eighth straight, and they’ve got the formula, I think, to make a deep playoff run.

• We’ll talk about the 49ers and Kyle Shanahan, what he’s been doing with that offense.

• Brock Purdy’s performance.

• We’ll talk about those Pittsburgh Steelers and a giant missed opportunity in Cleveland.

• Talk about the Ravens’ run game.

• We’ll preview that game [Ravens-Steelers] a bit.

But before we do any of that, I want to go back in time to 2007 and the New York Giants. And specifically, I want to talk about Eli Manning.

Eli Manning Coming of Age

That year, his career was really at a turning point. He was four years in. Everyone kind of expected him to be just like Peyton Manning right away. And through those first four seasons, he really wasn’t.

Looked like a completely overmatched quarterback during his rookie season. Had some really good moments in year two, but then finished off the year with a flop in the playoffs. They were shut out at home by the Panthers. 2006, they went 8-8. Snuck into the playoffs. And he played okay, but wasn’t overwhelming by any means.

And then 2007 came along. And that was another frustrating, streaky season for Eli Manning. He ended up leading the NFL in interceptions with 20. The Giants started off 0-2. Manning hurt his right arm in the first game of the year. Played through it. Ended up winning six in a row.

And then really it was one step forward, two steps back the rest of the way. And the second half of that season included just some atrocious performances by Manning. He had one game against the Vikings at home where he threw four interceptions, three of which went for touchdowns.

He had another game late in the season at home against the Redskins where I think he set a record for incompletions in a game. In the Giants’ second-to-last game, they played the Bills, and they would actually clinch the playoffs in this game, but it wasn’t because of Eli. He threw 15 passes in that game, two of which were intercepted.

I mean, there were times during that season in his fourth year in the league that it just seemed like the game was moving too fast for him.

Now, as most of you probably remember, from that point forward, the Giants would go on a run. Their final game of the year, they’d play the Patriots. The 15-0 Patriots. The Giants had everything clinched. There was nothing they could do to advance their seeding or to drop in the playoff seeding. They knew exactly where they would be, who their opponent would be.

A lot of people were saying they should just rest their starters and let the Patriots make history in their building. The Giants decided, hey, no, we’re not going to do that. And so they played with the Patriots. They went toe-to-toe with them. Ended up losing the game 38-35, and Eli Manning actually surprisingly had a great game. He threw for 250 yards, four touchdowns.

The Giants had the Patriots on their heels. They were up, I think, 28-16 at one point in the second half. But that sort of spearheaded a nice little run for Eli Manning in the playoffs because he looked like a different quarterback from that point forward.

Now, what were the Giants doing differently? They were simplifying things. The reads, where he was supposed to go with the ball, everything was defined, or most pass plays were defined.

In fact, I’ll inject myself and my career a little bit into this. 2007 was my first year out of college. Had played quarterback at Amherst, and my first job after graduating was at NFL Films working on the NFL Matchup Show with Greg Cosell, Ron Jaworski, Merril Hodge. Dream job. It was as awesome as it sounds. Basically just sat around all day watching film (I’m oversimplifying things). And by watching film, I say sometimes I was watching film and sometimes I was just sitting in the back of the room listening to Jaws and Greg as they watched film and keeping my mouth shut.

But I remember specifically during that Giants run, we were amazed that the Giants weren’t running a bunch of complex schemes. It was flat-curl, flat-curl, flat-curl, flat-curl-pin, flat-curl-pin.

And for those of you who don’t know what that play is, flat-curl is basically one receiver runs a curl route where he’s breaking inside at about six to eight yards, depending on the down and distance. And another receiver is running a flat. And then you as a quarterback, you’re basically just reading the defender in the area. Does he go with the flat or does he go with the curl? If he goes one way, you throw it the other way. And sometimes they would introduce a pin route or a vertical route that would keep any other defenders from getting near.

And we were amazed. We just kept saying, at some point, the defense is going to catch on to this and they’re going to be able to stop this. But no one really did.

And the Giants went on to beat Tampa in Tampa. They went on to beat the Cowboys in Dallas.

Eli Manning threw for 185 yards in the first game, 163 in the next. Attempted just 27 passes against the Buccaneers, just 18 passes against the Cowboys. But he was efficient, played a clean game, kept the offense moving, didn’t make any mistakes.

And then they got to the NFC Championship game, and things continued to be simplified. You know what play they ran all the time in that game? Hey, where’s Plaxico Burress? All right, I’m just going to throw it to him. The Packers left Plaxico Burress in one-on-ones against Al Harris all night, and Eli hit him 11 times for 151 yards.

The Giants, as you all know, would go on to win the Super Bowl.

Again, it wasn’t an offensive explosion that did it, but Eli kept the offense going, kept them on schedule, led two key touchdown drives at the end.

But the bottom line was that not only did Eli play well during these playoffs, he looked like he belonged. And he gained more and more confidence with each game.

And a big reason for that was the simplified play designs, the simplified play calls. Eli knew what he was looking at, knew where to go with the ball, and he could be decisive, get the ball out of his hands on time, and keep the offense moving forward.

Now, it’s amazing to think about that because Eli Manning is a quarterback who we all know what his strength is. He’s not a run-around quarterback. He’s not just making plays with his arm. He had a strong arm, but he relied on anticipation, accuracy, getting the ball where it was supposed to go, understanding what the defense was doing and attacking it accordingly. But even he needed a little bit of help at that point in his career.

Now, you’re probably asking yourself, why are we talking about this? We’re in week 18 of the NFL season. Don’t we have more important things to discuss?

Well, the reason I bring it up is because Eli Manning, a former number one overall pick, in his fourth year, finally started to put it all together. And it’s very reminiscent of what you’re seeing right now from another number one overall pick, Trevor Lawrence.

Subscribe now

Trevor Lawrence and Liam Coen

Now, Lawrence is in his fifth year, so it’s a little bit different than Eli. But I guess you could take away that first year with Urban Meyer, call that a wash. This is really his fourth season.

But regardless, he has had a very streaky start to his career where there have been high expectations. He had that first year with Urban Meyer. That was just a disaster of a season. But it wasn’t just Meyer. Lawrence was making decisions that you didn’t see him make in college.

He was not seeing the field.

Then Doug Peterson came along and actually righted the ship a little bit. Lawrence made the playoffs in the second season, had that great comeback win against the Chargers.

But then the next year came along, and after starting 8-3, he injured his ankle pretty severely, missed one game, but really was dealing with the ankle the rest of the year. Was playing through a pretty serious injury, and he fell back to earth.

Then his fourth season last year, everything was a disaster. They got off to a terrible start. He was missing throws.

There were talks about Peterson getting fired all season. Eventually, Lawrence got knocked out with a concussion midway through the year and didn’t play the rest of the season. And similar to Eli, you’re just thinking, where is this career going, man? What is the peak for what he can be? Is he just a middle-of-the-league quarterback?

Now, things are a little bit different with Lawrence than with Eli because he’s got more physical tools. He’s 6’6”, can throw the hell out of the ball, and he can run. He can make plays with his legs. But it’s been tough to put my finger on why Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been a more consistent quarterback throughout his career.

Because one week you’ll see him play and he’ll throw for 300 yards and he’ll look every bit the part as that generational can’t-miss talent everyone was talking about when he came out in the draft five years ago.

And then he’ll have another game that he follows it up with where he’s making bonehead decisions or just decisions where you just don’t know why he made them. It doesn’t make sense. Or he’ll look to run or he’ll get flustered with pressure. He’s always struggled against the blitz and with pressure around him so far since being in the NFL anyway.

And I’ve got a little bit of a theory on this. Now bear with me for one second, but if you break down a pass play into three different phases, we’ll just start at the snap. We won’t get into the whole pre-snap game. To just simplify things, let’s say there are three phases to every pass play.

There’s the first phase, which is where the quarterback drops back, hits his back foot, and should be getting the ball out to his first read. And whether that’s a two-receiver combo or the first receiver in a progression, obviously there are different types of reads. Won’t get into all that right now. But that first phase is just here’s where the ball is designed to go. You hit your back foot, the receiver’s open, you throw it.

Phase two is the rest of the read, and that can be three receivers, four receivers, five receivers, but phase two is just the rest of the read, and you’re doing that from the pocket.

Then you have phase three, and that is after the play breaks down or after you’ve gone through all of your reads and you need to get outside the pocket, make something happen with your legs, either running for a first down or scrambling to buy time and then finding a receiver on a scramble drill.

Read more

I’m not going to get into last year’s picks. Some would say we were off by a bit. Others would be a little meaner about it. Either way, we’re moving on. And this year, I’m almost positive that one of us is going to get it right.

As always, our old friend Joe Julius (from our pre-Substack Football Film Room days) joins Ed and me to predict the 2025 season. Below our predictions, you can also find links to all 32 team previews that we wrote this summer.

Nick Kehoe:

NFC Playoffs

Wild Card Round
#2 Rams defeat #7 Commanders
#6 Packers defeat #3 Lions
#4 Falcons defeat #5 Cardinals

Divisional Round
#1 Eagles defeat #6 Packers
#2 Rams defeat #4 Falcons

NFC Championship
#2 Rams defeat #1 Eagles

AFC Playoffs

Wild Card Round
#2 Chiefs defeat #7 Chargers
#3 Bills defeat #6 Bengals
#5 Steelers defeat #4 Texans

Divisional Round
#1 Ravens defeat #5 Steelers
#3 Bills defeat #2 Chiefs

AFC Championship
#1 Ravens defeat #3 Bills

Super Bowl LX
#1 Ravens defeat #2 Rams

Ed Steele:

NFC Playoffs

Wild Card Round
#2 Eagles defeat #7 49ers
#3 Cardinals defeat #6 Commanders
#5 Lions defeat #4 Falcons

Divisional Round
#5 Lions defeat #1 Packers
#3 Cardinals defeat #2 Eagles

NFC Championship
#5 Lions defeat #3 Cardinals

AFC Playoffs

Wild Card Round
#2 Chiefs defeat #7 Steelers
#3 Ravens defeat #6 Chargers
#5 Bengals defeat #4 Texans

Divisional Round
#1 Bills defeat #5 Bengals
#2 Chiefs defeat #3 Ravens

AFC Championship
#1 Bills defeat #2 Chiefs

Super Bowl LX
#1 Bills defeat #5 Lions

Joe Julius:

NFC Playoffs

Wild Card Round
#2 Packers defeat #7 Bears
#6 Rams defeat #3 Cardinals
#5 Commanders defeat #4 Buccaneers

Divisional Round
#6 Rams defeat #1 Eagles
#5 Commanders defeat #2 Packers

NFC Championship
#6 Rams defeat #5 Commanders

AFC Playoffs

Wild Card Round
#2 Texans defeat #7 Steelers
#3 Chiefs defeat #6 Broncos
#4 Ravens defeat #5 Bengals

Divisional Round
#1 Bills defeat #4 Ravens
#2 Texans defeat #3 Chiefs

AFC Championship
#2 Texans defeat #1 Bills

Super Bowl LX
#2 Texans defeat #6 Rams

Leave a comment

NFC East

NFC North

Subscribe now

NFC South

NFC West

Share Football Film Room

AFC East

AFC North

Refer a friend

AFC South

Subscribe now

AFC West

Head Coach: Nick Sirianni
Offensive Coordinator: Kevin Patullo
Defensive Coordinator: Vic Fangio
Special Teams Coordinator: Michael Clay

2024 Summary (W-L Record: 14-3)

The Eagles’ win in Super Bowl LIX was as thorough of a beatdown as you’ll see in a championship game. The fact that it was against a defending 2-time Super Bowl champ that was going for its 3rd in a row and 4th in 6 years made it all the more impressive.

Philly’s stats from last year show that their victory was no fluke. They were a very good team on both sides of the ball:

The offense went through their running game. They finished 2nd in the NFL with 179.3 rushing yards per game and then averaged 204.5 during the playoffs.

They were one of maybe two teams in the league where 3rd-and-medium (4-6 yards) was a mixed down and the run was still an option. In fact, Saquon Barkley had the most rushes (11), yards (137), touchdowns (2), and first downs (6) among running backs on 3rd-and-medium during the regular season. That changes what an offense can do and how a defense has to play them.

Which brings us to Barkley, who had an absolutely unbelievable season. The Eagles were already a very good running team prior to his arrival, largely because of how good their offensive line was. But Barkley kicked that up another level with his big-play ability.

He had 7 touchdown runs of 60 yards or more, the most 60-yard TDs of any kind in a single season in NFL history. 3 of those came in the playoffs. He also led the league in 10-yard runs during the regular season.

Because of the run game, the Eagles saw a lot of single-high coverage from defenses around the NFL (7th most according to of MatchQuarters. This matches up with Jalen Hurts’ strengths as a passer. He is less comfortable working the middle of the field. So seeing single-high coverage allows him to attack iso’s on the outside more often. And he’s got two receivers that give him distinct advantages on the perimeter in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

Interestingly enough, in the NFC Championship Game (which was one of his best passing performances of his season), 0 of his 20 completions came on a throw between the numbers 10 yards or more from the line of scrimmage.

On the other side of the ball, the addition of defensive coordinator Vic Fangio proved to be the difference maker for the Eagles. They finished the season 2nd in points allowed and first in yards (before dismantling the Chiefs in the Super Bowl).

Their defense was designed to prevent big plays by keeping the passing game in front of them and then rallying to the ball carrier to limit yards after the catch. They did this to near perfection last year, allowing the fewest 20-yard completions and finishing 3rd in YAC/completion allowed. They also finished 6th in takeaways.

Overall, they were a tough defense to crack, as the rest of the league ultimately found out.

Key Additions

WR John Metchie
TE Kylen Granson
RG Matt Pryor

DL Ty Robinson (4th Rd, 111th Overall)
EDGE Azeez Ojulari
EDGE Ogbo Okoronkwo
EDGE Josh Uche
LB Jihaad Campbell (1st Rd, 31st Overall)
CB Adoree’ Jackson
CB Jakorian Bennett
S Andrew Mukaba (2nd Rd, 64th Overall)

Key Losses

RB Kenneth Gainwell
RG Mekhi Becton

DL Milton Williams
EDGE Josh Sweat
EDGE Brandon Graham
EDGE Bryce Huff
CB Darius Slay
CB Avonte Maddox
CB Isaiah Ridgers
S C.J. Gardner-Johnson
S Tristin McCollum

Did They Address Their Holes?

The Eagles didn’t really have many holes last season (which tends to be the case for Super Bowl champions). However, they did lose a lot of key players from their D-line and secondary this offseason.

Read more

Head Coach: Andy Reid
Offensive Coordinator: Matt Nagy
Defensive Coordinator: Steve Spagnuolo
Special Teams Coordinator: Dave Toub

2024 Summary (W-L Record: 15-2)

The Chiefs got closer to a 3-peat than any team in the Super Bowl era. Unfortunately, they got blown out in the Super Bowl by the Eagles. The 40-22 final score was a lot closer than the game actually was (they trailed 34-0 at one point). Philadelphia’s defense, and specifically the mismatch in the trenches, was the driving force in the lopsided win.

The Chiefs are known for Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, but they’ve actually turned into a team led by their defense in recent years, as you can see from their 2024 season stats below:

Their numbers on offense weren’t that of a 15-2 team. By almost any metric, they were a middle-of-the-pack offense, which is not something you expect from a team with Andy Reid as the head coach and Mahomes as the quarterback.

Due to their injuries at wide receiver, they morphed into a ball-control passing game that didn’t really attempt to push the ball downfield much. In fact, they ranked dead last in the NFL in average air yards per attempt according to Pro-Football-Reference, and they had the 6th fewest completions of 20 yards or more.

They relied on taking care of the football (4th in turnovers) and a short-passing game that led to yards after the catch (6th in YAC/Completion).

They were also the best 3rd-down offense in football last season. They technically finished the season ranked 2nd in conversion percentage, but they entered Week 18 as the #1 team and then sat Patrick Mahomes. So I think it’s safe to call them the best 3rd-down offense in the league.

You can see how they did it in this breakdown below:

It’s hard to argue that a big part of this team’s success in general is that they know how to win. While that’s a completely subjective argument that isn’t necessarily driven by all-22 analysis or analytics, what else can you call it after seeing the Chiefs win 2 Super Bowls and then go 12-0 in 1-possession games last season. They’ve won 17 straight one-possession games going back to 2023.

Clearly all those close wins aren’t a fluke.

Mahomes was especially good in critical moments at the end of games in 2024, leading the Chiefs to 6 fourth-quarter come-from-behind wins and 8 game-winning drives.

The defense and special teams did their part to close out games as well. And that gets us into that Steve Spagnuolo-led defense, which is one of the most fun to watch in the league. Last season, they were great just about everywhere, finishing 4th in points allowed, 8th against the run, and 5th in pressure percentage.

The Chiefs blitzed at the 4th highest frequency in the NFL, and Spags always had something dialed up for a critical situation:

Key Additions

WR Jalen Royals (4th Rd, 133rd Overall)
LT Josh Simmons (1st Rd, 32nd Overall)
LT Jaylon Moore

DL Jerry Tillery
DL Omarr Norman-Lott (2nd Rd, 63rd Overall)
EDGE Ashton Gillotte (3rd Rd, 66th Overall)
CB Kristian Fulton
CB Nohl Williams (3rd Rd, 85th Overall)

Key Losses

RB Samaje Perine
WR Justin Watson
WR DeAndre Hopkins
LG Joe Thuney

DL Tershawn Wharton
DL Mike Pennel
S Justin Reid

Did They Address Their Holes?

Similar to their previous blowout Super Bowl loss 4 years earlier, pressure on Patrick Mahomes is what ultimately hurt the Chiefs the most in their 3-peat bid:

Last season, K.C. ranked 27th in pressure % allowed according to Pro-Football-Reference. The inability to protect consistently led to Mahomes looking more uncomfortable in general than we’ve seen him, which likely contributed to the drop off in his numbers.

Read more

Head Coach: Sean McDermott
Offensive Coordinator: Joe Brady
Defensive Coordinator: Bobby Babich
Special Teams Coordinator: Chris Tabor

2024 Summary (W-L Record: 13-4)

For the 4th time in 5 years, the Bills’ season ended at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs. Interestingly enough, they’ve beaten K.C. four straight times in the regular season going back to 2021, including 3 times at Arrowhead. They just can’t find a way to make the one play they need to in January:

The silver lining of last season is that Josh Allen got some much-deserved recognition as the NFL MVP. For the 5th straight year, including the playoffs, he had more than 45 total touchdowns. The key difference last season was that he threw just 6 interceptions, and the Bills shockingly led the league with just 8 giveaways.

Allen has become much more careful with the ball since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator midway through 2023. They’ve turned into somewhat of a physical, run-it-down-your-throat offense. Last season, they ran the ball at the 5th-highest rate in the NFL and played more snaps with 6 offensive linemen than any other team in the league.

The commitment to the run culminated in their playoff win over the Ravens in the Divisional Round. Against the best run defense in the NFL, they chose to run it on 36 of 59 plays (61%) and had success doing so (147 yards, 4.1 avg, 3 TDs). That allowed them to control the game and come away with the victory.

Leaning on the run game had several other ancillary effects last season. It allowed the Bills to have success when they used play-action. In fact, they were the best team in the NFL in EPA per play on play-action according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

The run game took pressure off of Josh Allen and the protection, enabling the Bills to rank 3rd in pressure % allowed and 1st in sacks.

It also likely led to the Bill seeing the highest amount of single-high coverage in the NFL, which made it easier for them to throw in general. They finished the year 5th in net yards per pass attempt and 6th in completions of 20+ yards.

There’s no doubt that a better run game contributed to more manageable third downs, the ability to stay on the field (Buffalo ranked 7th on 3rd down), and success in the red zone (2nd in the NFL).

On the other side of the ball, the Bills defense was designed to keep big pass plays from happening. They allowed the 5th fewest completions of 20 yards or more and had the 8th-lowest air-yards per completion average last season. One way they achieved this was by playing the 5th-highest percentage of split-safety coverage according to of MatchQuarters.

The biggest issues for the Bills were their run defense and their inability to get to the passer. They finished 19th in rushing yards allowed per attempt, gave up the 9th-most runs of 10 yards or more, and were just 18th in sacks.

Those were major contributors to the Bills’ inability to be effective on 3rd down, where they ranked 29th in the league. And that was ultimately one of the key contributors to their season-ending loss to the Chiefs. They couldn’t get off the field, allowing K.C. to convert 5 of 9 third downs as well as their only 4th-down attempt.

Key Additions

WR Josh Palmer
WR Elijah Moore

DL Larry Ogunjobi
DL T.J. Sanders (2nd Rd, 41st Overall)
DL Deone Walker (4th Rd, 109th Overall)
EDGE Joey Bosa
EDGE Michael Hoecht
EDGE Landon Jackson (3rd Rd, 72nd Overall)
CB Tre-Davious White
CB Maxwell Hairston (1st Rd, 30th Overall)
S Jordan Poyer
S Jordan Hancock (5th Rd, 170th Overall)

Key Losses

WR Mack Hollins
WR Amari Cooper
DL Austin Johnson
DL Quinton Jefferson
EDGE Dawuane Smoot
EDGE Von Miller
LB Baylon Spector
CB Rasul Douglas
CB Kaiir Elam

Did They Address Their Holes?

As mentioned above, 3rd down was an issue for the Bills defense last year. That comes down to the pass rush and the ability to cover. Buffalo has been searching for a great pass rush for years but hasn’t really been able to find it. I still question that they did enough in this department.

Read more

Head Coach: Dan Quinn
Offensive Coordinator: Kliff Kingsbury
Defensive Coordinator: Joe Whitt
Special Teams Coordinator: Larry Izzo

2024 Summary (W-L Record: 12-5)

The Commanders shocked the NFL world in 2024, largely by riding the hot hand (and legs) of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. Washington won two road playoff games, including a 4th-quarter come-from-behind win against the Buccaneers and a huge upset of the #1-seeded Lions. They reached their first NFC Championship Game in 33 years, only to be completely run over by the Eagles, 55-23:

The most remarkable aspect of the season was the performance of Jayden Daniels. He completed almost 70% of his passes for 3,568 yards, 25 TDs, 9 INTs, and had a 100.1 passer rating. He also added 891 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground.

A rookie quarterback completing nearly 70% of his passes, scoring over 30 touchdowns, and running for almost 900 yards is unheard of. But what was more impressive was his poise. He had a 104.6 rating vs. the blitz, led five 4th-quarter comebacks wins, and never seemed to be bothered by the enormity of any situation he was in.

The Commanders’ versatile rushing attack was also instrumental to their success last season. They ranked 4th in the NFL in rushing yards per attempt and 3rd in yards per game.

An interesting aspect of their ground game is that 58.6% of their runs came against light boxes, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. This is the Kliff Kingsbury factor. Spread the defense out and end up with a light box. Then run it with Jayden Daniels and get him in space.

On the other side of the ball, Dan Quinn orchestrated an impressive turnaround of the defense. The Commanders were dead last in the NFL in points and yards allowed a year before and had the worst pass defense in the league.

Quinn got them to 18th in points, 13th in total yards, and 3rd in pass defense. He did it with the same approach he used in Dallas, leaning on single-high coverage (cover-3 and cover-1), lots of blitzes, and lots of speed on the field. Washington utilized almost all nickel and dime personnel (~90 % according to of Match Quarters).

Unfortunately, that often left the Commanders too light against the run, which they struggled to stop all season. They ranked 30th in rushing yards allowed, 28th in yards per attempt, and 26th in plays of 10 yards or more.

That was ultimately their undoing against the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game. Philadelphia rushed for 229 yards and 7 (not a typo) touchdowns.

Key Additions

RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt (7th Rd, 245th Overall)
WR Deebo Samuel
WR Jaylin Lane (4th Rd, 128th Overall)
LT Laremy Tunsil
RT Josh Conerly (1st Rd, 29th Overall)

DL Javon Kinlaw
DL Eddie Goldman
EDGE Von Miller
EDGE Deatrich Wise Jr.
EDGE Jacob Martin
CB Trey Amos (2nd Rd, 61st Overall)
CB Jonathan Jones
S Will Harris

Key Losses

RB Brian Robinson
WR Olamide Zaccheaus
WR Dyami Brown
LT Cornelius Lucas

DL Jonathan Allen
DL Sheldon Day
DL Phidarian Mathis
DL Jalyn Holmes
EDGE Dante Fowler
EDGE Clelin Ferrell
CB Benjamin St-Juste
S Jeremy Chinn

Did They Address Their Holes?

Washington’s offseason approach seemed to be to put everything in place to support their young quarterback instead of necessarily focusing on their weaknesses, which I think was the right move.

When you draft a quarterback #2 overall, your franchise is tied to the success that he has. The mistake we’ve seen so many teams make is they desert their young QB instead of making sure he has everything he needs to be successful. The Commanders made sure to go the opposite route.

Read more

Head Coach: Dan Campbell
Offensive Coordinator: John Morton
Defensive Coordinator: Kelvin Sheppard
Special Teams Coordinator: Dave Fipp

2024 Summary (W-L Record: 15-2)

For most of the 2024 season, the Lions were the best team in the NFL. They finished the year 15-2 and did so while playing in the toughest division in football. Unfortunately, injuries ravaged the defense, and over their final 6 games including the playoffs, they allowed more than 30 points per game. A once promising season ended with a shocking 45-31 home loss to the Commanders in the Divisional Round:

We’ll start with the offense, which finished #1 in scoring and #2 in total yards. Great scheme and play-calling were at the center of their success. Detroit was one of the most balanced teams in the league, throwing the ball 52.2% of the time and running it the other 47.8%.

Their running game was not only one of the best in the NFL (6th in rushing yards per game, 9th in yards per attempt, 6th in runs of 10 yards or more), it was the foundation of the offense.

It was versatile, attacking with a variety of schemes, motion, and two different styles of backs in Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. But it also took on the personality of head coach Dan Campbell. It was a physical running game that bullied opponents up front. They ranked just 24th in the NFL in 11-personnel usage according to Sumer Sports, leaning on larger personnel to push defenses around.

And all of that helped set up the their play-action passing game, which was arguably the best in the NFL. They ranked 1st in play-action frequency and 44.8% of their passing yards come on play-action, which was more than any other team according to data from PFF.

But this wasn’t just a passing game reliant on scheme. Jared Goff had an exceptional season and had the highest passer rating in the NFL against the blitz, when success is more dependent on the quarterback’s execution than scheme.

Detroit had the versatility in personnel (think Amon-ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta) and scheme to control the game through the air (4th in 3rd down %) and create explosive plays (3rd in completions of 20+ yards).

There was nothing this offense couldn’t do.

The defense kind of started out that way too. Entering Week 13, they had the #2 ranked scoring defense. Around that time, however, the injuries started to become too much to overcome. As mentioned above, they struggled down the stretch, allowing more than 30 points in 4 of their final 6 games. And their season ultimately ended in a performance against the Commanders where they couldn’t stop a nose bleed.

Key Additions

WR Isaac TeSlaa (3rd Rd, 70th Overall)
RG Tate Ratledge (2nd Rd, 57th Overall)

DL Tyleik Williams (1st Rd, 28th Overall)
DL Roy Lopez
EDGE Tyrus Wheat
LB Grant Stuard
CB D.J. Reed
CB Avonte Maddox

Key Losses

WR Tim Patrick
C Frank Ragnow
RG Kevin Zeitler
LT Dan Skipper

EDGE Za’Darius Smith
CB Carlton Davis
CB Kindle Vildor

Did They Address Their Holes?

The Lions really didn’t have many holes entering this season. Their biggest holes on defense were largely filled just by getting their players back from injury last season. Aidan Hutchinson’s return in particular will be huge.

They also drafted defensive tackle Tyleik Williams in the first round to shore up the inside and then they signed cornerback D.J. Reed to help out on the back end. They should have the talent at all 3 levels to be very good on defense once again.

Read more

Head Coach: John Harbaugh
Offensive Coordinator: Todd Monken
Defensive Coordinator: Zach Orr
Special Teams Coordinator: Chris Horton

2024 Summary (W-L Record: 12-5)

On paper, it’s somewhat inconceivable that the Ravens didn’t get past the AFC Divisional Round last season. They were one of the best passing teams in the league. They were the best running team. The combination of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry was borderline unstoppable. And while the defense wasn’t quite what it was a year earlier, they ultimately finished as a top-10 unit overall:

But for the second straight season, the Ravens just couldn’t put it all together when they needed to. In the 2023 AFC Championship Game against the Chiefs, it was the offense that didn’t do its part. Last year the defense didn’t provide enough resistance against Buffalo. In both games, there were too many mistakes in critical moments.

All that said, there were so many areas of this team that were elite in 2024 and provide promise for what could be this season.

Baltimore had the best run defense in the NFL (1st in rushing yards per game, yards per attempt, and runs of 10 yards or more allowed). Many offenses realized they couldn’t run it on the Ravens at all, so they didn’t even try. Baltimore faced the lowest run-play frequency in the NFL as a result.

Their pass rush was tough to deal with as well, ranking 2nd in the league with 54 sacks.

On offense, the passing game was efficient and explosive. They finished 1st in net yards per pass attempt, Lamar Jackson ranked 1st in passer rating, and the Ravens completed the 6th-most passes of 20 yards or more.

But the bread and butter of this team was their running game. They not only led the NFL in most major categories, but they were also first in yards per attempt before contact AND after contact.

Derrick Henry was especially effective on 1st down. During the regular season, he had 197 first-down rushes, which was 61% of his total carries for the season. He averaged 6.1 yards per rush on those carries with 29 runs of 10+ yards. That set the offense up for success on 3rd down (where they finished 3rd in the NFL).

On top of all that, defenses had to contend with Lamar Jackson’s legs. 570 of his 915 rushing yards came on designed runs according to PFF data. No other QB was within 250 yards of Jackson in this area.

You can see just how versatile their rushing attack was in this breakdown:

Key Additions

WR DeAndre Hopkins
T Joseph Noteboom
T Emery Jones (3rd Rd, 91st Overall)
T Carson Vinson (5th Rd, 141st Overall)

DL John Jenkins
EDGE Mike Green (2nd Rd, 59th Overall)
LB Teddye Buchanan (4th Rd, 129th Overall)
CB Jaire Alexander
CB Chidobe Awuzie
S Malaki Starks (1st Rd, 27th Overall)

Key Losses

WR Nelson Agholor
LG Patrick Mekari

DL Michael Pierce
LB Malik Harrison
CB Brandon Stephens
S Marcus Williams
S Eddie Jackson

Did They Address Their Holes?

This team had one hole and only one hole to focus on this offseason - and that was the secondary.

Read more