Again, I’ve provided some additional metrics and info along with our normal head-to-head comparisons based on team stats below.

Remember: Green = Good, Red = Bad.

Patriots Offense vs. Seahawks Defense

• This is a strength-on-strength matchup. The Patriots offense ranked 2nd in points and 2nd in yards per play this season. The Seahawks defense ranked 1st in points and 2nd in yards per play allowed.

Passing Game

• The Patriots like to take their shots downfield. They finished the year with the highest intended air yards per attempt and air yards per completion in the NFL, and they had the 2nd-most completions of 20 yards or more.

• Seattle’s defense ranked 1st in air yards per completion allowed.

• Seattle operates predominantly out of split-safety looks (3rd highest frequency according to of MatchQuarters), using zone ~70% of the time. They try to keep the passing game in front of them and hold their looks until after the snap, keeping the quarterback from understanding the coverage until post-snap so they are slower to get the ball out of their hands.

• Drake Maye has not been as good in the playoffs at attacking downfield as he was during the regular season. He has completed just 9 of 26 passes on throws traveling 10 yards or more from the line of scrimmage (34.6%) according to NFL Next Gen Stats. During the regular season, he completed 61.2% of those passes.

• The Seahawks can play man coverage when they need to (5th in EPA against), but I don’t anticipate them playing as much as they did in the NFC Championship Game vs. the Rams. Especially since Drake Maye has been much more comfortable vs. man than zone during the postseason (3 of his 4 TD passes have come vs. man).

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Pass Rush & Protection

• The Patriots don’t have many weaknesses on offense. However, they do tend to allow pressure and sacks. They were 16th in pressure % allowed and 26th in sack % this season.

• Many of the sacks were likely a result of Drake Maye holding the ball a bit too long or looking to use his legs to keep dead plays alive. The Patriots had the largest % of pass plays where it took more than 2.5 seconds to throw the ball this season.

• In the playoffs, Maye has been pressured on 32.7% of dropbacks according to Pro Football Focus, and he’s taken 15 sacks in 3 games. He’s fumbled on 5 of those sacks as well (6 total fumbles).

• The Seahawks love to use use stunts (3rd-highest frequency in the NFL) in order to generate pressure inside with their dynamic interior D-line.

• They ranked 6th in pressure percentage and 7th in sacks this season.

• The Seahawks are the only team that had 5 D-linemen with more than 40 pressures during the regular season (DeMarcus Lawrence, Byron Murphy, Leonard Williams, Uchenna Nwosu, Boye Mafe).

• The Seahawks don’t blitz often, but when they do, they’re very effective. They were the #1 blitz defense in the NFL this season based on passer rating.

• But Drake Maye has been very good against the blitz this season, leading all QBs with a 131.7 passer rating according to Pro-Football-Reference.

Run Game

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Again, I’ve provided some additional metrics and info along with our normal head-to-head comparisons based on team stats below.

Remember: Green = Good, Red = Bad.

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Patriots vs. Broncos

Broncos Offense vs. Patriots Defense

• It’s hard to predict exactly how the Broncos will approach this game on offense with a back-up quarterback (Jarrett Stidham) making his first start in 2 years. You would think Sean Payton would try to take some pressure off of him by running the ball. But…

• The Broncos run game has been middle-of-the-pack this year (16th in yards per game, 15th in yards per attempt). They also only ran the ball 41.8% of the time during the regular season (22nd in the NFL).

• Last week against the Bills’ bottom-5 run defense, they ran the ball just 10 times for 41 yards with their running backs (Bo Nix was the leading rusher with 29 yards on 12 carries).

• On top of that, the Patriots have a very good run defense, ranking 6th in yards per game allowed this season.

• In the playoffs, New England has held their opponents to just 135 rushing yards on 44 carries (just 3.07 yards per carry) across 2 games. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Mike Vrabel load up to stop the run and put everything on the right arm of Stidham.

• The Patriots weren’t among the top teams in the league in terms of pass rush this season (24th in pressure % and 22nd in sacks). However, they’ve generated a ton of pressure in their two postseason games against the Chargers and Texans (Over 52% according to Pro Football Focus).

• The Broncos’ offensive line is much better than the Texans’ or Chargers’, however. They allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL and were 8th in pressure % allowed according to Pro-Football-Reference (A part of that success was Bo Nix’s ability to scramble, however).

• They’ll need to be ready for stunts in a way that the Texans and Chargers were not. Stunts are a huge part of what the Patriots like to do as a defense. In fact, they ranked 2nd in the NFL in stunt frequency this season according to of MatchQuarters.

• The Patriots relied on the blitz to some extent this season (10th in blitz frequency according to Pro-Football-Reference). But they’ve upped that frequency substantially in the playoffs so far, blitzing on over 45% of dropbacks in each game.

• They’ve had success when blitzing too. Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud combined to complete just 15 of 39 attempts vs. the blitz (38.5%), for 158 yards (4.05 yards per attempt), with 1 TD, 2 INTs, and a passer rating of 38.2. They were also pressured on 54.5% of blitzes for 3 sacks. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Patriots come after Stidham.

• One way the Broncos could counter this pressure is with their screen game, where Sean Payton always has a few tricks up his sleeve. Denver was 3rd in screen frequency this season.

Patriots Offense vs. Broncos Defense

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Again, I’ve provided some additional metrics and info along with our normal head-to-head comparisons based on team stats.

Remember: Green = Good, Red = Bad.

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Bills vs. Broncos

Broncos Offense vs. Bills Defense

• The Bills’ run defense finished the year 28th in yards allowed, 30th in yards per attempt, and 29th in runs of 10 yards or more. This is their biggest vulnerability on this side of the ball.

• But will the Broncos be able to take advantage? Their run game has been middle-of-the-pack this year (16th in yards per game, 15th in yards per attempt). They also only run the ball 41.8% of the time (22nd in the NFL).

• Teams have chosen to attack the outside in the run game vs. the Bills this season, with 57.3% of all rushing attempts going outside the tackles, the 2nd most in the NFL according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Last week vs. Jacksonville, the Bills allowed 98 rushing yards on 13 carries outside the tackles.

• The Broncos run the ball outside the tackles 55.3% of the time (9th in the NFL).

• The Bills are a predominant 2-shell defense that has been especially effective in zone coverage (top-5 in EPA according to of MatchQuarters).

• The Broncos have seen the 2nd-highest rate of zone coverage this season and were 11th in EPA according to MatchQuarters.

• Don’t expect to see many big plays through the air in this one. Buffalo keeps everything in front of them in the passing game. They allowed the 4th-fewest 20-yard completions in the NFL this season.

• The Broncos also don’t attack downfield through the air very often. They threw the ball more than 10 yards from the line of scrimmage just 31.3% of the time this season (28th in the NFL). They weren’t very effective when they did this season either (28th in air yards per completion, 16th in pass plays of 20 yards or more).

• Instead, Denver tends to attack with a short passing game. This year, they finished 5th in % of passes under 10 yards from the line of scrimmage, 9th in % of throws that came out in less than 2.5 seconds, 5th in RPO frequency, and 3rd in screen frequency.

• This likely contributed to the Broncos allowing the fewest sacks and having the lowest sack % in the NFL this season.

• Bo Nix’s ability to scramble and make plays with his legs also factored into this (he was 8th in the NFL with 296 scramble yards according to Pro Football Focus).

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Bills Offense vs. Broncos Defense

• The Broncos defense doesn’t have many weak spots. They were 3rd in points allowed, 1st in total yards per play allowed, 1st in net passing yards per attempt, and 3rd in rushing yards per attempt.

• Their pass rush might be the best in the NFL. They finished the year first in sacks (by a wide margin), 1st in sack %, and 2nd in pressure %.

• They can get pressure in multiple ways, but the Broncos still choose to blitz often (6th in the NFL according to Pro-Football-Reference).

• Josh Allen ranked 25th against the blitz this season with just an 88.9 passer rating (among qualified passers).

• However, Allen led all quarterbacks with 444 yards on scrambles according to Pro Football Focus.

• Allen only scrambled 3 times for 15 yards last week vs. Jacksonville. It’s unclear how healthy his ankle is. The ability or inability to escape vs. Denver’s pass rush will play a big role in this one.

• The Bills will likely try to use play-action and screens to neutralize Denver’s pass rush (3rd and 8th in frequency respectively).

• Staying in manageable 3rd down situations will also be key for the Bills. They’ve been outstanding this season on 3rd down (4th in the NFL). But the Broncos defense has been every bit as good (#2 ranked defense on 3rd down).

• The Broncos are an aggressive defense front to back. They played the 2nd-highest frequency of man coverage this season according to MatchQuarters.

• The Bills saw the highest frequency of man coverage this season. Considering Josh Allen is such a threat with his legs and defensive coordinators don’t like their defenders to turn their backs to him, that’s a great insight into how the league views Bills receivers and their inability to win 1-on-1 matchups.

• The Bills might try to lean on their run game to neutralize Denver’s pass rushers. They had the number-1 rushing offense in the NFL (159.6 yards per game) and the 2nd-most runs of 10 yards or more.

• While the Broncos are no slouch in this department (3rd in rushing yards per attempt, 2nd in 10-yard runs allowed), the Bills had the 2nd-highest run-play frequency this season and might choose to be persistent with it.

• This is what they did last year in the divisional round vs. Baltimore. The Ravens had the #1 ranked rushing defense, but the Bills kept going after them on the ground to control the pace of the game. They ran the ball on 36 of 59 plays (61%) and had success doing so (147 yards, 4.1 avg, 3 TDs). We’ll see if they take the same approach.

• Josh Allen has had an excellent playoff career so far:

  • 14 Games (Bills W-L: 8-6)

  • 66.7 completion %

  • 259.4 pass yards per game

  • 35 Total TDs (26 passing, 9 rushing)

  • 4 INTs

  • 102.4 passer rating

  • 701 rushing yards (50.1 yds per game)

  • 5.7 rushing yards per attempt

49ers vs. Seahawks

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Below you can check out how every team matches up in the Wild Card Round based on team stats. Dig in, find the mismatches, and watch closely to see which teams exploit their opponents’ weaknesses on game day.

Remember: Green = Good, Red = Bad.

I’ve also provided some additional numbers that are specific and critical to each matchup. Enjoy!

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Rams vs. Panthers

Panthers Offense vs. Rams Defense

• One distinct advantage on this side of the ball goes to the Rams pass rush, which finished the year 4th in pressure % according to Pro-Football-Reference. The Panthers finished 22nd in pressure % allowed.

• The Rams don’t bring more than 4 very often, instead relying on stunts across the D-line and simulated pressures. According to of MatchQuarters, they stunted more frequently than any other defense and were 5th in Sim Pressure %.

• The Rams defense was top-10 in scoring but just 19th in rushing yards per attempt this season. This seems to be their underbelly.

• In their first matchup in Week 13, the Panthers targeted this area, calling 35 runs to 24 passes. They picked up 141 yards on those 35 designed runs.

• In terms of situational football and plays that can alter the tenor of a game, the Rams defense has a distinct advantage. They finished 3rd in % of drives ending in a takeaway, while the Panthers offense finished 29th. The Rams were 7th on 3rd down, while the Panthers were 25th. L.A.’s defense was also 3rd in red-zone scoring. The Panthers were 24th.

• However, in that first matchup, the Panthers were 3 for 3 on 4th down with two touchdowns. The 3 conversions led to 17 points.

• The Panthers passing game was among the worst in the NFL this season (26th in yards, 27th in net passing yards per attempt).

• But they seem to save their best for last. Bryce Young led 4 fourth-quarter come-from behind game-winning drives and 6 game-winning drives overall. He has 12 since entering the league, the most during that span.

Rams Offense vs. Panthers Defense

• The Rams were the top-ranked offense in the NFL this season (1st in points, yards, and yards per play).

• No passing game was more dangerous than the Rams’ this season. They finished the year first in passing yards and completions of 20 yards or more and were 2nd in air yards per completion.

• The Panthers did a good job of not allowing the big play through the air this season (7th fewest completions of 20 yards or more), which should serve them well vs. L.A.

• The Panthers were among the league leaders in frequency of zone coverage according to to of MatchQuarters, with cover-3 and cover-2 as their preferred defenses. The Rams were top-5 in EPA against both coverages this season and zone coverage in general, though.

• The Rams had the highest % of under-center snaps this season (59.9%) according to Pro-Football-Reference. That’s a big part of their offense as they are effective at running the ball (2nd in % of runs gaining 4 yards or more) and using play-action off of it (1st in frequency, 4th in passer rating on play-action).

• The Rams led the league in “13” personnel usage (1 RB, 3 TEs). That personnel grouping also contributes to the effectiveness of both their run game and play-action passing attack. L.A. finished this season with the highest EPA out of 13 personnel according to SumerSports.

• The Rams finished 4th in giveaways this season, but they committed 3 turnovers in their first matchup against Carolina, including a pick-6. Those were key to the Panthers winning that first matchup.

• Matthew Stafford had a season that should lead to the first MVP award of his career. He led the NFL in passing yards (4,707) and touchdowns (46), with just 8 interceptions.

• Stafford has also had an outstanding playoff career thus far:

  • 10 Games

  • Super Bowl LVI Champion

  • 66.5 completion %

  • 299.6 yards per game

  • 8.2 yards per att

  • 19 TD-6 INT

  • 102.3 passer rating

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Packers vs. Bears

Bears Offense vs. Packers Defense

• The Bears ranked 27th in pressure % allowed this season according to Pro-Football-Reference. But they also allowed the 3rd-fewest sacks, an indicator of Caleb Williams’ great ability to escape pressure.

• The Packers had a similar pass-rushing profile this season, ranking 7th in pressure % but just 20th in sacks.

• The Bears offense is centered around their run game, which finished 3rd in yards, 3rd in yards per attempt, and 1st in % of runs gaining 4 yards or more.

• They have an advantage in this area over the Packers, who finished 18th in yards per game, 12th in yards per attempt, and two weeks ago allowed 307 yards on the ground to the Ravens.

• In their first two matchups this season, the Bears rushed for 288 yards on 58 carries (4.97 yards per rush).

• The Bears like to run play-action off of their run game. They finished the season with the 2nd highest frequency of play-action passes according to Pro Football Focus.

• The Bears finished 2nd in % of throws that took more than 2.5 seconds to come out, another indicator of Williams’ scrambling tendencies.

• That certainly played a role at the ends of games, where Williams has been outstanding this season (6 fourth-quarter come-from-behind wins).

• The Packers defense was bottom-10 in the league in blitz frequency this season. Although part of that was likely the Micah Parsons factor.

• We’ll see if defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley changes up that tendency given Parsons’ absence and Green Bay’s 4-game losing streak to end the season, a span where they sacked the quarterback just 3 times.

• If they do blitz, Chicago should be ready as Caleb Williams finished the year with a 106.9 passer rating vs. the blitz.

Packers Offense vs. Bears Defense

• The Bears led the NFL in takeaways this season with 33.

• However, their defense struggles if they can’t generate turnovers. They were bottom-10 in points allowed and bottom-5 in yards allowed.

• The Packers, on the other hand, were great at protecting the ball, finishing the year with the 3rd-fewest giveaways.

• The Bears also struggled to stop the run all season, finishing 27th in yards, 29th in yards per attempt, and dead last in % of runs gaining 4 yards or more.

• Matt LaFleur wants to run the ball, and the Packers utilized the ground game at the 5th-highest rate this season.

• Despite the Packers not being as effective at running it this season (15th in yards per game, 24th in yards per attempt), you’ll likely see them try to attack this area of the Bears defense and neutralize their ability to create turnovers.

• Opponents have opted to run outside the tackles vs. the Bears this season, doing so 57.8% of the time, a league high according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

• Green Bay’s passing game has a go-for-broke philosophy. No team had more passing yards come from throws traveling 20 yards or more from the line of scrimmage this season according to Pro Football Focus.

• They also finished the year with the 6th most completions of 20 yards or more, a reflection of Jordan Love’s tendency to push the ball downfield as well as some great scheme.

• The Bears allowed the 2nd-most completions of 20 yards or more this season.

• Matt LaFleur is always excellent with his play-action concepts. The Packers finished the year 4th in EPA on play-action, with the Bears defense finishing 17th defending it according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

• The Bears were among the league leaders in man coverage frequency this season. But they were towards the bottom of the league in EPA according to to of MatchQuarters. The Packers finished the year at the top of the league in EPA vs. man coverage.

Bills vs. Jaguars

Jaguars Offense vs. Bills Defense

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Seahawks vs. 49ers

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Saints vs. Falcons

Browns vs. Bengals

Colts vs. Texans

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Ravens vs. Packers

Seahawks vs. Panthers

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Lions vs. Vikings

Broncos vs. Chiefs

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Packers vs. Bears

Buccaneers vs. Panthers

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Below, you can check out some of our Rams and Seahawks content from this season:

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Ravens vs. Bengals

Cardinals vs. Texans

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Jets vs. Jaguars

Chargers vs. Chiefs

Bills vs. Patriots

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Steelers vs. Ravens

Titans vs. Browns

Colts vs. Jaguars

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The Lions love to play man coverage, so it will be interesting to see how they choose to match up and give their cornerbacks help against George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb.

Here’s a look at how Detroit took away the Buccaneers’ passing game and their multiple dangerous receivers earlier in the season:

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And here’s a breakdown from last week’s loss to the Packers showing how Green Bay was able to beat the Lions’ man coverage in key situations with scheme and execution:

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Founding Member Subscription:

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Chiefs vs. Cowboys

Bengals vs. Ravens

Bears vs. Eagles

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Rams vs. Panthers

49ers vs. Browns

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Steelers vs. Bears

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Patriots vs. Bengals

Giants vs. Lions

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Founding Member Subscription:

All the benefits of a Paid Subscription plus access to our FFR Playbook, which has links to offensive and defensive plays and is grouped by concept (e.g. passing game, running game, situational, coverages, pressures, etc.). You’ll have a menu of plays with links to breakdowns and hundreds of examples from NFL games at your fingertips! Here’s a preview of what it looks like:

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Panthers vs. Falcons

Buccaneers vs. Bills

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  • Game Plan Central - where you can see the many ways NFL coaches design plays and attack their opponents

  • How They Match Up - which provides the ability to analyze head-to-head matchups for every NFL game based on team stats

Founding Member Subscription:

All the benefits of a Paid Subscription plus access to our FFR Playbook, which has links to offensive and defensive plays and is grouped by concept (e.g. passing game, running game, situational, coverages, pressures, etc.). You’ll have a menu of plays with links to breakdowns and hundreds of examples from NFL games at your fingertips! Here’s a preview of what it looks like:

You’ll also get access to The Film Room, which has in-depth breakdowns of individual players. Most recently, I broke down over 35 plays from Drake Maye’s season.

I also broke down Maye’s 2025 performance on last week’s episode of The Football Film Room Show.

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Saints vs. Panthers

Giants vs. Bears

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Jaguars vs. Texans

Bills vs. Dolphins

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  • How They Match Up - which provides the ability to analyze head-to-head matchups for every NFL game based on team stats

Founding Member Subscription:

All the benefits of a Paid Subscription plus access to our FFR Playbook, which has links to offensive and defensive plays and is grouped by concept (e.g. passing game, running game, situational, coverages, pressures, etc.). You’ll have a menu of plays with links to breakdowns and hundreds of examples from NFL games at your fingertips! Here’s a preview of what it looks like:

You’ll also get access to The Film Room, which has in-depth breakdowns of individual players. Most recently, I broke down over 25 plays from Aaron Rodgers’ first 6 games of the season.

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