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Flores’ defense isn’t an easy one to accomplish this against. The looks they provide and the pressure they apply make it nearly impossible for a quarterback to know what’s going to happen until after the ball is snapped. And if you wait too long to decipher it all, you get ear-holed by a pass rusher.

Throughout most of Sunday’s season opener, with the Vikings applying constant pressure (87% blitz rate, 54% pressure rate according to PFF), Love delivered big-time throw after big-time throw:

The below throw is tough enough to make from a clean pocket. For him to put it over the flat defender like he did with a pass rusher at his legs is impressive to say the least:

Love’s ability to stand tall in the pocket and deliver the ball knowing he was about to get hit played a big role in his success on Sunday. Watch him make this throw with a defender bearing down on him. It required tremendous anticipation:

That ball was out well before his receiver had gotten his head around.

On this next snap, watch Love navigate the pressure, move in the pocket, and then deliver a precise ball about 30 yards downfield between two defenders:

Ridiculous.

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On this last example, you can see a little bit more of what Love’s physical talent allows him to do.

On this boot to the right, the deep safety started cheating to the side of the boot, assuming that the throw would likely go in the same direction as Love was moving. But Love surprised him by throwing downfield across his body, which most QB’s don’t have the ability to do:

The Packers lost this game because they couldn’t convert on a 4th-and-1, didn’t finish drives (they were 1 for 4 in the red zone), and committed two key turnovers late, which were due in large part to protection busts and poor blocking.

The good news for Green Bay is that the rest of the NFL doesn’t play defense like Brian Flores and the Vikings do. I think the Packers will be able to settle things down from a protection standpoint. And I think Love is going to have a big year.

Here’s a look at tonight’s Thursday Night Football Game between the Lions and Bills based on last week’s numbers. The sample size is certainly small at this point in the season, but it won’t take long for these numbers to become representative of team identities.

We’ll post the rest of the Week 2 games before Sunday.

Reminder: Green = Good; Red = Bad.

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Lions vs. Bills

“He is one of the most interesting quarterbacks to keep an eye on because he is capable of taking off and becoming a star. But he is also capable of stagnating due to some bad habits and his overall style of play.”

After his Week 1 performance against the Cowboys, it’s clear that Dart used the offseason to try and become the former because many of his bad habits were clearly addressed. And he looked like a different quarterback on Sunday night.

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As a rookie, Dart’s footwork was sloppy:

He often refused to let the game come to him, instead opting to look for the big play or make something happen with his legs. That led to some spectacular plays. But it also led to him leaving big completions on the field.

Just take a look at this play below. He had a shot to hit either of those deep crossers. But he was never ready to release the ball despite a clean pocket, and he instead looked to run as soon as he saw an opening. The result was a sack instead of a big play:

In Week 1, however, the difference to Dart’s game was dramatic.

Just take a look at this 3rd-and-9 in the first half. Watch Dart quickly process the coverage as he dropped, make his decision, hit his back foot with no hitch, and then get the ball out on time:

Footwork, processing, and reacting all go hand in hand. Being precise with your feet allows you to get rid of the ball the instant you recognize that a receiver will be open.

Let’s take another look at that from the sideline angle. The Cowboys were trying to fool Dart by spinning out into a Non-Traditional-Tampa-2 coverage post-snap and robbing the middle:

Dart quickly processed it, knew the cornerback to the backside would be getting depth and moving inside to become the 2-deep safety, and knew that Nabers’ route would have leverage to the outside:

Dart also quickly realized the type of throw that would be required. It was one where he needed to feather the ball over the flat defender, which he did perfectly:

That, to me, is a more exciting and meaningful play for the future of the Giants franchise than any scramble or run-around highlight Dart could provide.

Here’s another example from the same drive. Watch Dart drop back with purpose, hitch quickly, and get the ball out on time:

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• Are the New York Giants the 1970 Miami Dolphins?

• The Chiefs found a run game.

• A more aggressive Josh Allen?

• Caleb Williams and Lamar Jackson looked unstoppable.

• Rough starts for the Patriots, Rams, and Packers.

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Moore finished with 5 receptions for 100 yards and a 43-yard touchdown catch in the Bills’ season-opening win against a great Texans defense. But perhaps his biggest contribution was on a play where he didn’t even touch the ball.

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With the Bills trailing 31-30 and just 1:41 remaining, they faced a 3rd-and-11 at the Texans’ 34-yard line.

First, notice the formation and personnel. The Bills were in a 3x1 set with D.J. Moore to the back side, and the Texans appeared to be matched up in man coverage with just a single safety in the middle of the field (cover-1):

You can see the route concept illustrated below:

According to Josh Allen, the post route to Josh Palmer that he ultimately threw really was never supposed to be an option.

“You want the absolute truth? We call this a horseshoe. This is not where the ball is supposed to go. We have never once repped the ball going there.”

But post-snap, the deep-middle safety started drifting to D.J. Moore’s side:

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Among them was their success on 3rd down. While the Rams offense struggled, converting just 2 of 9 attempts, the 49ers went 7 for 12 on the money down.

5 of those 7 conversions came on completions to Mike Evans.

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As we talked about during the offseason, Evans was a huge addition whose presence was going to make life easier for Brock Purdy in key situations:

“Mike Evans is the new edition that has to be the most exciting for the 49ers because they haven’t really had a receiver like him before. That is, a big, 6’5”, boundary-X receiver who you can line up with iso’s to the back side and rely on him to win his 1-on-1’s consistently. […] He’s still a difference-maker on 3rd down and in the red zone, and he still commands extra attention from the defense.”

Kyle Shanahan didn’t just use Evans as a back-side boundary-X receiver, though. In fact, 4 of his 5 third-down receptions came when he was aligned in the slot or inside the numbers. This seemed to be a point of emphasis for the 49ers based on how the Rams were playing things on defense.

L.A. predominantly used just two cornerbacks and either 3 or 4 safeties depending on if they were in nickel or dime personnel. Rams Defensive Coordinator Chris Shula also kept those cornerbacks outside whether playing zone (85-90% of the time) or man.

That allowed Shanahan to get Evans matched up on safeties when he put him inside.

You could see it on the 49ers’ first 3rd down of the game. Evans was aligned in the slot, which got him a 1-on-1 matchup against safety Quentin Lake:

On this next 3rd down, the formation and motion got him matched up inside on…no one:

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Remember: Green = Good; Red = Bad.

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Bears vs. Panthers

Buccaneers vs. Bengals

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Saints vs. Lions

Bills vs. Texans

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Maye completed 6 of 11 passes in the 4th quarter for just 53 yards and 3 interceptions. He was late on his first two 4th-quarter interceptions and then made a terrible decision on the game-sealing INT.

You can take a quick look at these throws below.

First INT - The Seahawks played quarter-quarter-half (cover-2 to the side of the throw). Maye took forever to unload the ball. I’m not sure what he saw because by the time he released it, the cover-2 safety was already moving towards his intended target. He was practically camping out under the ball, waiting for it to get to him:

Second INT - 3rd-and-14. The Seahawks again played quarter-quarter-half and walked the Will LB over the X receiver to the backside. He jammed that receiver inside-out. That gave the cornerback the ability to get over top and he didn’t need inside help from the safety to his side (Julian Love) as a result.

That freed up Love, who watched Maye the whole way and was able to jump the route at the right time. But Maye was again soooo late with this throw. By the time he was ready to release it, Love was already closing:

Third INT - This was simply inexcusable. Down 13-10, the worst case scenario is that you tie the game with a field goal. Maye has to throw that ball away.

He said after the game that he saw Mack Hollins in the back of the end zone and just didn’t get enough on it:

That’s no excuse, though. You just can’t just throw it up and be so reckless in that situation, to say the least.

We’ll see how Maye bounces back in Week 2.

We’ve got another great one tonight down under in Australia. Check out how the Rams and 49ers match up below.

Remember: Green = Good; Red = Bad.

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49ers vs. Rams

2026 Season Previews

The Seahawks, playing with back-up quarterback Drew Lock after Sam Darnold left the game early in the first quarter, trailed 10-3 with 11:38 remaining in the 4th quarter. They faced a 4th-and-1 from the Patriots’ 45-yard line.

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Seattle had stolen some momentum after picking off Drake Maye on the previous drive, but none of that would have mattered if they couldn’t come away with any points on this possession.

The Patriots loaded up the line of scrimmage and squeezed inside to try and stop any run attempt. They also had 2 safeties deep pre-snap:

The Seahawks had what Lock described as “a classic football play” called. You can see it diagrammed below:

According to Lock:

“It looked kind of funny before the snap. Didn’t really seem like they had anybody ready to match Jax [Smith-Njigba] based on what I knew we were about to run.”

I can’t say for sure if Lock was aware of this, but perhaps he understood that the Patriots had no one to match JSN because of what he had seen on tape in preparing for New England.

In fact, the Seahawks called the same play that the Broncos did in last year’s AFC Championship Game against the Patriots in a near-identical situation, a 4th-and-1, albeit out of a slightly different look:

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One of the things we like to do at Football Film Room is give you a preview of every NFL game based on team stats. We’re not comparing one offense to another offense since they’re never on the field at the same time. Instead, we’re taking a look at how each team’s offense matches up to that week’s opponent on defense, and vice versa.

For Week 1, we’ll be using 2025 team stats. In Week 2, however, we’ll begin using 2026 numbers.

Here’s a look at tonight’s season opener between the Patriots and Seahawks. We’ll post the rest of the Week 1 games on Thursday and Friday.

Remember: Green = Good; Red = Bad.

Patriots vs. Seahawks

2026 Season Previews

As always, our old friend Joe Julius (from our pre-Substack Football Film Room days) joins Ed and me to predict the 2026 season. Feel free to pick them apart and call them names in the comments.

Nick Kehoe:

NFC Playoffs

Wild Card Round
#2 Lions defeat #7 49ers
#3 Cowboys defeat #6 Vikings
#5 Seahawks defeat #4 Buccaneers

Divisional Round
#1 Rams defeat #5 Seahawks
#2 Lions defeat #3 Cowboys

NFC Championship
#1 Rams defeat #2 Lions

AFC Playoffs

Wild Card Round
#2 Bills defeat #7 Bengals
#6 Steelers defeat #3 Ravens
#4 Chargers defeat #5 Chiefs

Divisional Round
#1 Texans defeat #6 Steelers
#2 Bills defeat #4 Chargers

AFC Championship
#1 Texans defeat #2 Bills

Super Bowl LXI
#1 Rams defeat #1 Texans

Ed Steele:

NFC Playoffs

Wild Card Round
#2 Buccaneers defeat #7 Lions
#6 Seahawks defeat #3 Packers
#4 Eagles defeat #5 49ers

Divisional Round
#1 Rams defeat #6 Seahawks
#2 Buccaneers defeat #4 Eagles

NFC Championship
#2 Buccaneers defeat #1 Rams

AFC Playoffs

Wild Card Round
#2 Bills defeat #7 Patriots
#6 Ravens defeat #3 Broncos
#4 Bengals defeat #5 Chiefs

Divisional Round
#1 Texans defeat #6 Ravens
#2 Bills defeat #4 Bengals

AFC Championship
#2 Bills defeat #1 Texans

Super Bowl LXI
#2 Bills defeat #2 Buccaneers

Joe Julius:

NFC Playoffs

Wild Card Round
#2 Cowboys defeat #7 49ers
#3 Packers defeat #6 Seahawks
#5 Lions defeat #4 Saints

Divisional Round
#1 Rams defeat #5 Lions
#3 Packers defeat #2 Cowboys

NFC Championship
#1 Rams defeat #3 Packers

AFC Playoffs

Wild Card Round
#2 Chargers defeat #7 Patriots
#3 Texans defeat #6 Broncos
#4 Bengals defeat #5 Ravens

Divisional Round
#1 Bills defeat #4 Bengals
#2 Chargers defeat #3 Texans

AFC Championship
#1 Bills defeat #2 Chargers

Super Bowl LXI
#1 Rams defeat #1 Bills

NFC

AFC

• Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady are more alike than you think.

• How Jaylen Waddle changes the Broncos offense.

• Why Mike McDaniel is the most important coordinator hire of the offseason.

• When will we see Fernando Mendoza?

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• Will a new OC in Seattle be their downfall?

• Do the Rams have any weaknesses?

• Can the 49ers overcome injuries once again?

• Could the Cardinals actually be a fun team to watch?

I hope you enjoy!

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Subscribe before the opening kickoff of the Patriots-Seahawks game on September 9th and get locked in at that rate forever!

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NFC East

NFC North

NFC South

NFC West

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AFC East

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West

Head Coach: Klint Kubiak
Offensive Coordinator: Andrew Janocko
Defensive Coordinator: Rob Leonard
Special Teams Coordinator: Joe DeCamillis

2025 Summary (W-L Record: 3-14)

2025 was supposed to be the start of a rebuild with Pete Carroll turning one more franchise into a championship organization.

It ended up being a continuation of years of Raiders misery.

The Raiders finished the year 3-14, earned the #1 overall pick, and promptly fired Carroll after the season.

With the exception of their first game, a road win over the eventual AFC-Champion Patriots, and the fact that their terrible play ultimately led to the drafting of Fernando Mendoza, nothing went right last season for the Raiders.

Just look at those numbers above, particularly on offense. Dead last in points. Dead last in yards. Bottom-5 in passing. Dead last in rushing.

While the defense had a better season than the offense, they still weren’t much to write home about either.

So this offseason, the Raiders began yet another rebuild.

Key Additions

QB Fernando Mendoza (1st Rd, 1st Overall)
QB Kirk Cousins
RB Mike Washington, Jr. (4th Rd, 122nd Overall)
WR Jalen Nailor
LG Spencer Burford
C Tyler Linderbaum
C Trey Zuhn III (3rd Rd, 91st Overall)

EDGE Kwity Paye
EDGE Keyron Crawford (3rd Rd, 67th Overall)
LB Quay Walker
LB Nakobe Dean
CB Taron Johnson
CB Jermod McCoy (4th Rd, 101st Overall)
CB Hezekiah Masses (5th Rd, 175th Overall)
S Treydan Stukes (2nd Rd, 38th Overall)
S Dalton Johnson (5th Rd, 150th Overall)

Key Losses

QB Geno Smith
RB Raheem Mostert
WR Tyler Lockett
LT Stone Forsythe
LG Dylan Parham
C Jordan Meredith
RG Alex Cappa

EDGE Tyree Wilson
EDGE Charles Snowden
LB Devin White
LB Elandon Roberts
CB Darnay Holmes
S Lonnie Johnson, Jr.
S Jamal Adams

Biggest Questions Entering 2026

When will Fernando Mendoza Play?
We all know the Raiders are probably not doing much this season. 2026 is all about trying to set the foundation for the future.

Kirk Cousins will be the starter out of the gate. Will that be for the entire season? Will the Raiders pick an ideal game midway through the year to give Mendoza his first start? Everything seems to be on the table.

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Head Coach: Andy Reid
Offensive Coordinator: Eric Bieniemy
Defensive Coordinator: Steve Spagnuolo
Special Teams Coordinator: Dave Toub

2025 Summary (W-L Record: 6-11)

Everything seemed off right from the get-go last season for the Chiefs. They started 0-2 and just couldn’t seem to win those close games we’ve seen them pull out year after year. For reference, they went 12-0 the year before in one-possession games. Last season, they went 1-9.

Mahomes’ Week 15 season-ending injury was the capper, and the NFL experienced a postseason without him for the first time since he became the Chiefs’ starter in 2018.

Last season ended one of the most impressive runs we’ve seen in NFL history. From 2018-24, the Chiefs reached 7 straight AFC Championship Games, winning 5 of them.

They made it to 5 Super Bowls in a 6-season stretch, winning 3 of them, and they came closer to a three-peat than any team in the Super Bowl era.

But all of those long postseason runs seemed to finally catch up with the Chiefs in 2025. It’s easy to say this now that we have access to the results, but in retrospect, they just seemed like a tired team that had expended all of their energy to go on a dynastic run.

And there was nothing left in the tank.

I don’t think last season spells the end of the Chiefs by any means. I think this was, instead, more of an organizational reset. I have every expectation that they’ll be back and competitive this season and beyond.

Key Additions

QB Justin Fields
RB Kenneth Walker III
RB Emari Demercado
RB Emmett Johnson (5th Rd, 161st Overall)
WR Cyrus Allen (5th Rd, 176th Overall)

DL Khyiris Tonga
DL Peter Woods (1st Rd, 29th Overall)
EDGE R Mason Thomas (2nd Rd, 40th Overall)
EDGE Emmanuel Ogbah
LB Nick Bolton
LB Drue Tranquill
CB Mansoor Delane (1st Rd, 6th Overall)
CB L’Jarius Sneed
CB Kaiir Elam
CB Jadon Canady (4th Rd, 109th Overall)
S Alohi Gilman

Key Losses

RB Kareem Hunt
RB Isiah Pacheco
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR Marquise Brown
TE Robert Tonyan
RT Jawaan Taylor

DL Jerry Tillery
DL Derrick Nnadi
DL Mike Pennel
EDGE Charles Omenihu
EDGE Mike Danna

LB Leo Chenal
CB Jaylen Watson
CB Trent McDuffie
S Bryan Cook
S Mike Edwards

Biggest Questions Entering 2026

What will we see from Patrick Mahomes this year?
This is really the only question that matters isn’t it? What is Patrick Mahomes going to look like coming off of a torn ACL and LCL last December? I don’t know. You don’t know. But the Chiefs’ season hinges on it.

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Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh
Offensive Coordinator: Mike McDaniel
Defensive Coordinator: Chris O’Leary
Special Teams Coordinator: Ryan Ficken

2025 Summary (W-L Record: 11-6)

The Chargers had another good season under Jim Harbaugh in 2025. Although for the second year in a row, it ended in a disappointing Wild Card playoff loss.

The defense was outstanding all season, finishing 9th in points, 5th against the pass, 8th against the run, and 7th in takeaways. They gave the Chargers a chance in their playoff loss by holding the Patriots to just 16 points.

The offense was just too undermanned, particularly up front, to be able to do anything. Quarterback Justin Herbert was under pressure on a whopping 56.8% of snaps in that game according to PFF. And he was sacked 6 times. L.A. scored just 3 points.

And this was the story throughout much of the season. The offense was limited by their offensive line after losing left tackle Rashawn Slater before the season and right tackle Joe Alt for all but 6 games.

Despite having a quarterback with one of the best arms in the NFL, they didn’t have the time to push the ball downfield. L.A. finished just 23rd in frequency of passes traveling 10 yards or more from the line of scrimmage. They also ranked just 19th in pass plays of 20 yards or more.

It didn’t help that defenses had little respect for their receivers. The Chargers faced the 2nd-highest rate of cover-1 (man free) in the NFL according to of MatchQuarters. L.A. also saw the 6th highest rate of single-high coverage.

The approach by opponents was simple. Defenses knew the Chargers couldn’t protect and they weren’t afraid of getting burned deep. So they played single-high to get more defenders in the box and avoid giving the Chargers the ability to run the ball. Then they smothered L.A.’s receivers so Herbert had nowhere to go with the ball in the little time he had before the pass rush got home.

The Chargers addressed all of that this offseason with one key move.

Key Additions

RB Keaton Mitchell
FB Alec Ingold
WR Brenen Thompson (4th Rd, 105th Overall)
TE Charlie Kolar
TE David Njoku
C Tyler Biadasz
LG Kayode Awosika
C Jake Slaughter (2nd Rd, 63rd Overall)
RG Cole Strange
OT Travis Burke (4th Rd, 117th Overall)

DL Dalvin Tomlinson
DL Nick Barrett (5th Rd, 145th Overall)
ED Akheem Mesidor (1st Rd, 22nd Overall)
S Genesis Smith (4th Rd, 131st Overall)

Key Losses

WR Keenan Allen
TE Tucker Fisk
TE Will Dissly
TE Tyler Conklin
LT Austin Deculus
LG Zion Johnson
C Bradley Bozeman
RG Mekhi Becton
OT Bobby Hart
OT Jamaree Salyer

DL Da’Shawn Hand
DL Otito Ogbonnia
EDGE Odafe Oweh
CB Benjamin St-Juste

Biggest Questions Entering 2026

Will the O-Line be better (and healthier)?
As mentioned above, the Chargers’ O-line was absolutely decimated last season. They lost left tackle Rashawn Slater before season even started, and they only got 6 games from right tackle Joe Alt.

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The O-line was one big game of musical chairs, and its inability to protect Justin Herbert was the #1 area of concern all season. L.A. finished the year 31st in pressure % allowed and 29th in sacks.

Their run game fared a little bit better, finishing in the middle of the pack. But that was likely due more to Herbert’s ability to scramble (and run for his life). In fact, the Chargers had a larger percentage of their rushing yards come from the scramble than any team in the NFL according to PFF.

Ultimately, their issues keeping Herbert upright sunk their season, as they were non-competitive on offense vs. the Patriots in the Wild Card round:

So will this year be different? Welp, it’s not off to a great start.

Center Tyler Biadasz, who they signed this offseason, tore his ACL during training camp and is done for the season. So it sounds like rookie 2nd-round pick Jake Slaughter will be the starting center.

Rashawn Slater’s status for the start of the season is also up in the air after a flare-up to his surgically-repaired knee.

The good news is that Joe Alt appears to be ready to go. And I have to believe the Slater will play some good football when he does return to the lineup. So conceivably, they should be improved at the tackle positions, and by extension, across the O-line.

They’ll need to be if they finally want to win a playoff game.

What impact will Mike McDaniel have on the offense?
I’m not sure there was a more important coordinator hire this offseason across the entire NFL than the Chargers hiring Mike McDaniel to be their OC.

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Head Coach: Sean Payton
Offensive Coordinator: Davis Webb
Defensive Coordinator: Vance Joseph
Special Teams Coordinator: Darren Rizzi

2025 Summary (W-L Record: 14-3)

The Broncos were arguably the best team in the AFC last season. They finished the year as the #1 seed and only lost the AFC Championship Game by 3 points despite losing Bo Nix the week before and playing a QB who hadn’t started a game in over 2 years.

Denver was led by their defense last season, which had very few weak spots. They ranked 3rd in points allowed, 1st in total yards per play allowed, 1st in net passing yards per attempt, and 3rd in rushing yards per attempt.

They were a complete defense.

Their pass rush might have been the best in the NFL. They finished the year first in sacks (by a wide margin), 1st in sack %, and 2nd in pressure %.

They got those sacks in a number of different ways. Vance Joseph was one of the more aggressive defensive coordinators, ranking 6th in blitz percentage. But the Broncos also had the most sacks in the NFL on 4-man rushes. And Nik Bonitto (14 sacks) was a force every time he rushed the passer.

However, Joseph’s aggressive nature played a role on the back end of the defense as well. Denver played the 2nd-highest frequency of man coverage last season according to of MatchQuarters.

To summarize, most offenses did not enjoy facing the Broncos Defense.

While the D was the driver of Denver’s success last year, it wasn’t the only reason they went 14-3 and got the #1 seed. The offense, while really being more of a middle-of-the-pack unit, did enough most weeks and had some huge games along the way.

They scored 44 points against the Cowboys, 34 against a good Packers defense, and 33 points in the 4th quarter alone against the Giants in a game where they came back from a 19-0 deficit.

Most importantly, they came through when it mattered in the playoffs (before Bo Nix got hurt), scoring 33 points against the Bills in the Divisional round. They came back late in that one as well, scoring a go-ahead touchdown with less than a minute remaining.

They’re not alone in thinking that they would have reached the Super Bowl had Nix remained healthy.

Key Additions

RB Jonah Coleman (4th Rd, 108th Overall)
WR Jaylen Waddle
TE Justin Joly (5th Rd, 152nd Overall)
OT Kage Casey (4th Rd, 111th Overall)

DL Tyler Onyedim (3rd Rd, 66th Overall)

Key Losses

DL John Franklin-Myers
LB Dre Greenlaw
S P.J. Locke

Biggest Questions Entering 2026

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